2002 - #2 Miami - LOST 56-45
2001 - #1 Miami - LOST 24-26
2000 - #2 Miami - LOST 21-41
1999 - #1 Florida State - LOST 29-46
1992 - #3 Miami - LOST 23-43
1991 - #4 Florida State - LOST 20-33
1990 - #4 Florida State - LOST 28-39
1990 - #1 Georgia Tech - LOST 3-5
1989 - #3 Florida State - LOST 7-41
1988 - #5 West Virginia - LOST 10-22
1988 - #3 Florida State - LOST 14-41
1987 - #4 Syracuse - LOST 21-35
1987 - #1 Miami - LOST 13-27

 

It's Halloween…and much like college football seasons of the past, the BCS ghouls and goblins have worked their magic on several high-ranked teams. But one common truth usually comes to light when searching for the Virginia Tech Hokies each October's end in the voting polls. You can almost bet Frank Beamer and his squad are sitting somewhere near the Top 5. The seasons have rolled by since the early 1990's - the time Coach Beamer started to put the Hokies on a national map. This is not a young program trying to get its feet on the ground; the program has been built for well over a decade. Since 1993, the teams' records posted and bowl invitations have been as good as any.

So why does Virginia Tech find such high rankings during the month of October only to fail in tougher exams? Well, as hard of a pill as it is for Hokie fans to swallow, the dreaded "Strength of Schedule" always seems to be the topic they end up defending every single season. Considering Virginia Tech has never, in the school's history, defeated a Top 5 team, and considering Frank Beamer is 0-13 versus Top 5 opponents since his arrival in 1987 (17 seasons), one has to figure VT would go out of its way to avoid such a catastrophe.

The apparent reason for VT's early October success and high rankings has been due to extremely poor (to mediocre) competition. Don't blame Virginia Tech, for the current poll system is set up to reward won/loss records. In this approach to looking good, it's not whom you play, but whom you didn't play. The dilemma for VT exists when finally facing stout competition…players find the speed and intensity of the game changes when the opponent is top-shelf. And the same speed and intensity per usual (that easily disperses with opponents such as the James Madison's of the world) isn't getting it done - much like we saw with a more physical West Virginia team last Wednesday beat the Hokies into the once-bitten category.

So is the Strength of Schedule argument for Virginia Tech going to help or hurt them this time around? Let's take a look at statistics that can tell the trends of this topic over time.

In the last ten years of Virginia Tech football (1993-2002), the Hokies are 37-5 in non-conference play. Out of 42 games, only five teams finished ranked in the Top 25 and the record versus those teams: 3-2.

 

1993
Bowling Green (6-3-2)
Maryland (2-9)
East Carolina (2-9)
Virginia (7-5)
1994
Arkansas State (1-10)
Southern Miss (6-5)
East Carolina (7-5)
Virginia (9-3)
1995
Cincinnati (6-5)
Navy (5-6)
Akron (2-9)
Virginia (9-4)
1996
Akron (4-7)
UL-Lafayette (5-6)
East Carolina (8-3)
Virginia (7-5)
1997
Arkansas State (2-9)
Miami OH (8-3)
UAB (5-6)
Virginia (7-4)
1998
East Carolina (6-5)
Clemson (3-8)
UAB (4-7)
Virginia (9-3)
1999
James Madison (I-AA)
UAB (5-6)
Clemson (6-6)
Virginia (7-5)
2000
Akron (6-5)
East Carolina (8-4)
UCF (7-4)
Virginia (6-6)
2001
Connecticut (2-9)
Western Michigan (5-6)
UCF (6-5)
Virginia (5-7)
2002
Arkansas Stte (6-7)
Louisiana State (8-5)
Marshall (11-2)
Texas A&M (6-6)
Western Michigan (4-8)
Virginia (9-5)

 

The basic problem resides in the fact that VT has Big East Conference foes since 1992. While other major leagues, such as the SEC and Big XII, generally have a handful of programs worthy of Top 10 mention annually, the Big East has one for Tech's SOS requirements…Miami. The one-game schedule argument will get put to the test this Saturday in Blacksburg, a game the Hokies can possibly win to send their Top 5 demonic record back to the depths of Coral Gables. The Hurricanes likely represent the Hokies only ranked opponent of this year's12 games. A loss will mean another year of schedule bashing by rivals, and even more new-found theories that maybe VT should not be awarded such lofty Top 5 status without actually beating a Top 5 team. Nahhhh, win and you are still in, but the point is well made.

The main defense proposed by Athletic Director Jim Weaver and Hokie fans far and wide, is that the more recognizable schools and stiffer competition are only willing to schedule a 2:1 set up, meaning the Hokies must visit twice to, in turn, receive a home game only once. That argument would have held much water a decade ago as Beamer was attempting to build. But, looking around the nation at present, 1:1 homes games are plentiful for already established programs just like in Blacksburg. The VT front office recently looked into games versus possibly Michigan, Tennessee, and Penn State and after being told no, just assumed that every school wanted little to do with visiting Blacksburg. With a little more time and effort, stout opponents can be found. The question is: how bad do they want to be found? Look around the major programs and one can find dozens of 1:1 set-ups such as UCLA/Oklahoma, Tennessee/Miami, Florida State/Notre Dame, USC/Auburn, Washington/Ohio State and much like the one VT signed with LSU.

2002
The hopes of finding more difficult opponents appeared to rise during last season. Teams such as LSU, Texas A&M and Marshall found their way onto the schedule. Are these signs of a changing philosophy? Just what contract details are being arranged for the future? If 2003 is any current indication, the answer to the first question is a resounding NO! With foes such as UCF, James Madison, and UConn all at home during the month of September, the belief that the Hokies are well prepared for (the) Miami(s of the world) will likely fall well short. Western Michigan remains a foe for next fall, while an away game with LSU gets pushed back to 2007. Since the Hokies separate from the Big East next year, it was good to see that West Virginia will continue as a foe for the next two seasons, for now. But, Ohio has been signed to a 3-year contract, Kent State has been signed to a multiple game contract, and William & Mary makes the 2007 list.

HERE COMES MIAMI AND THE ACC
At least the future will now require a two-game schedule for the Hokies to get BCS bowl qualified as they join the 12-team ACC. Included with Miami will now be a Conference Championship Game, likely against Florida State. The road for Virginia Tech's first ever National Championship trophy just became that much more difficult, which makes last week's WVU loss sting knowing the time was now, especially if the Hokies find a way to beat the #2 Miami Hurricanes this coming Saturday. Ghouls and goblins aside, history doesn't predict such an event. The odds makers say 0-14 for Frank Beamer and VT versus Top 5 teams. No better time to exorcise those demons. Trick or treat?

 

 

VIRGINIA TECH HAS NEVER, IN THE HISTORY OF ITS PROGRAM, BEATEN A TOP 5 TEAM

To read even further, in the last 18 years (since 1985) Virginia Tech is 0-21 against Top 10 teams.
This list uses the AP Poll as to where teams finished, not where they were ranked at the time VT played them. Which case in the 1995 Sugar Bowl, the Hokies beat Texas, which at the time was ranked #9, but finished #14. So in that scenario VT has beaten a Top 10 team. However, they have never beaten a Top 8 team using either scenario.

2002 - #2 Miami - LOST 56-45
2001 - #1 Miami - LOST 24-26
2000 - #2 Miami - LOST 21-41
1999 - #1 Florida State - LOST 29-46
1997 - #6 North Carolina - LOST 3-42
1996 - #6 Nebraska - LOST 21-41
1994 - #6 Miami - LOST 3-24
1993 - #7 West Virginia - LOST 13-14
1992 - #3 Miami - LOST 23-43
1992 - #6 Syracuse - LOST 9-28
1991 - #4 Florida State - LOST 20-33
1991 - #9 East Carolina - LOST 14-17
1990 - #4 Florida State - LOST 28-39
1990 - #1 Georgia Tech - LOST 3-5
1989 - #3 Florida State - LOST 7-41
1988 - #9 Clemson - LOST 7-40
1988 - #5 West Virginia - LOST 10-22
1988 - #3 Florida State - LOST 14-41
1987 - #4 Syracuse - LOST 21-35
1987 - #1 Miami - LOST 13-27
1985 - #5 Florida - LOST 18-35
1981 - #8 Miami - LOST 14-21
1980 - #5 Florida State - LOST 7-31
1979 - #6 Florida State - LOST 10-17
1979 - #1 Alabama - LOST 7-31
1978 - #6 Clemson - LOST 7-38
1978 - #1 Alabama - LOST 0-35
1976 - #7 Texas A&M - LOST 0-19
1973 - #9 Houston - LOST 27-54
1973 - #4 Alabama - LOST 6-77
1972 - #7 Alabama - LOST 13-52
1966 - #9 Miami - LOST 7-14
1953 - #10 West Virginia - LOST 7-12
1952 - #9 Alabama - LOST 0-42