Kansas
State Pass vs. Cal Pass Defense
Edge: Kansas State
The KSU
run game will be the biggest catalyst in the success of the
pass game. Ell Roberson completed 52 percent of his passes
a year ago, but only had four games where he had to throw
the ball more than 20 times. When Ell throws the ball well,
the Wildcats are unstoppable. In his two losses, though, "ER"
completed less than 39 percent of the throws he made. WR James
Terry is a legit deep threat, who should garner much of the
attention from the Cal secondary. This will leave the middle
and sidelines available for TE Thomas Hill, who I expect to
have a big game. I also expect to see Sproles and Alsup to
turn in a few big YAC gainers out of the backfield. Cal will
be breaking in new defensive personnel and will have to contend
against all that KSU speed. With the Bears paying too much
attention to the line of scrimmage, Kansas State will cash
in on the passing game when they need to.
Cal
Pass vs. Kansas State Pass Defense
Slight Edge: Kansas State
Though
the Bears are breaking in a new starter, Tedford has been
quite the architect in molding solid QBs over the years. The
Bears averaged 248 yards per game via the pass and the "air
apparent" looks to follow up with similar numbers. Right
now, Aaron Rodgers seems to have the inside track over Reggie
Robertson to take snaps. It will be extremely important for
Cal to spread out this quick KSU defense to set up some sort
of a run game. You can expect a 200-yard performance from
Rodgers, but it will come as a result of putting the ball
in the air 35+ times in search of some sort of offensive progress.
The K-State defense will cause too much confusion and wear
on the Cal front and in the end, Rodgers will get beat up.
Kansas
State Run vs. Cal Run Defense
Edge: Kansas State
Cal faired
pretty well against the run last year, giving up only 114
ypg. This year though, they return only one starter in the
front seven and will be going against a KSU offense that averaged
264 ypg on the ground. Yikes. This is the area of major focus
in this contest. If Cal can somehow slow down the rushing
attack and force Roberson to put the ball in the air, the
Bears have a shot at pulling the upset. It'd be real nice,
wouldn't it Cal fans? Roberson and Sproles should combine
for over 200 yards and pad the tackle stats for the Cal safeties.
Both should start their own Heisman campaigns in scintillating
fashion against a virgin defense that needs time to grow.
Cal
Run vs. Kansas State Run Defense
Edge: Kansas State
Ace Echemandu
was penciled as the starting tailback going into last season
before tearing his ACL He returns to 2003 as the starter and
brings with him some heavy expectations, especially with the
inexperience at QB. Cal was not impressive running the football
last year and can use that as their element of surprise if
they put forth a concentrated effort to the ground game. Even
so, KSU allowed just 78 yards per game rushing last year and
bring a strong front seven. Surprise or not, Cal will find
it very difficult to get past this defense. KSU's LBs all
move very well to the football, so it will be pivotal for
the Bears to spread them around by throwing the football and
giving them reason to make false steps (back) and give ground
to the line of scrimmage. I don't expect much of any flash
on the ground for Cal. KSU will put the lights out on the
Golden Bears' running attack early and set the defensive tone
for this game.
Special
Teams
Edge: Kansas State
KSU brings
more firepower in this area, as Cal must replace three of
their four specialists. The Wildcats are naturally an aggressive
player in the special teams game and Darren Sproles gives
KSU an explosive return man. This phase of the game should
produce something, well, special that night. Special Teams
are always the most vulnerable facet of an opening game because
teams spend the least amount of time working on this area.
I expect to see either a big return for a TD or a block returned
for the same for one of the two teams- bank on it being the
Wildcats.
Final
Thoughts
KSU has won 20 of their last 22 non-conference grudges, with
both losses coming in bowl games. Sure, their competition
hasn't been real top heavy, but included are wins against
Arizona State, USC (twice), Tennessee, and Iowa. The Wildcats
once again carry a load of talent and expectations for the
upcoming season. They have been itching to get back on the
field ever since the thrilling Holiday Bowl victory against
Arizona State last December and now get that opportunity against
an unusually confident Cal team. They have one of the more
explosive offenses in the country and a defense that will
prove punishing by game's end. Cal won't put up much of a
fight against the Wildcats as the lack of a run game and the
effects of a thin, inexperienced defense will have them pinned
against the ropes all night. Snyder will get it done in yet
another opener and Cal fans will see the beginning of what
might be a "step down" year.
Chappy's Pick: Kansas State 31 Cal 13
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