TEXAS A&M RUN OFFENSE vs. PITTSBURGH RUN DEFENSE
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
A&M starts freshman RB Courtney Lewis who is averaging six
yards-per-carry. Not bad, but we need to remember that was against
the likes of Arkansas State and Utah, only Utah of which could
be mistaken for a powerhouse defense. Take out the 80-yard run
by WR Terrence Murphy against Utah and A&M was averaging
an anemic 72 yards-per-game rushing after it's first two games.
That improved slightly with the 102 yards gained on the ground
against Virginia Tech, but almost 50% of that was by soph. QB
Reggie McNeal. The Pitt defense is only allowing 85 yards-per-game.
That, along with allowing only two rushing TDs so far, should
prove much more stout than what Lewis has seen.
TEXAS A&M PASS OFFENSE vs. PITTSBURGH PASS DEFENSE
ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
After only two games it's difficult to put much stock in rankings
and such. But given the level of opposition that A&M has
faced, it's telling that they have no players ranked amongst
the top 100 WRs in Div. I. Considering that Coach Franchione
is attempting to install a more balanced offense, you'd think
that completions (30) and total yards (360) would be higher.
Surprisingly, despite hurricane Isabel, McNeal was able to
almost double his first two game's figures by going 14-of-26
for 170 yards against a good VT defensive secondary. But senior
Jamaar Taylor and junior Terrence Murphy have combined for
only 268 total yards receiving after 3 games. Perhaps the
emergence of WR Tim Van Zant during the Tech game (102 yards)
will continue, since it looks like opponents will probably
start double-teaming Murphy. Look for Pittsburgh to load up
against the run and dare A&M to pass.
PITTSBURGH RUN OFFENSE vs. TEXAS A&M RUN DEFENSE
ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M
Under Franchione, A&M switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense,
ostensibly to better stop the run. But Utah RB Brandon Warfield
torched the A&M defense for 181 yards rushing. Starting
three sophomores on the D-Line doesn't help. Tech was able
to rack up 273 yards rushing, so it seems that Franchione's
new defense hasn't gelled yet and appears susceptible to big
days by opponent's RBs. Like A&M, Pitt isn't exactly tearing
up the field with their feet. But they have averaged a respectable
154 yards-per-game, and Toledo had to put eight in the box
to hold them under 100. Having said that, this is QB Rob Rutherford's
team, and that team passes. Look for the Panthers to run just
enough to keep A&M honest by making that 4-3 defense play
close to the line.
PITTSBURGH
PASS OFFENSE vs. TEXAS A&M PASS DEFENSE
ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Pitt. QB Rob Rutherford is the Div. I passing leader with
a whopping 181 QB rating! He's already thrown for 888 yards
on 60 completions in his first three games. Primary wideout
Larry Fitzgerald is averaging almost 18 yards per reception
with six TDs, while secondary receivers Brockenbrough and
Wilson have a combined 17+ yards per catch. This is a high-powered
passing machine that A&M's 37th ranked defense is going
to have a hard time containing. Against Utah and it's Mountain
West passing attack, A&M coughed up 200+ yards passing.
Look for Pitt to air it out for big yards and points.
SPECIAL TEAMS
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Andy Lee of Pittsburgh averages 47 yards per punt, and A&M's
return men combined for a paltry three yards average return
against Utah. Terrence Murphy, though, is dangerous in the
open field as A&M's kick off return man. His 67-yard return
against Utah was the difference maker in that tilt. Pittsburgh's
return men are averaging a pedestrian 6.7 yards per punt return
and rank 115th in I-A (out of 117 teams) with 14 yards per
kick off return. The battle for field position could go Pittsburgh's
way if A&M's Cody Scates doesn't improve on his 26 yards
per punt average he had against Tech. More importantly, Scates
needs better protection and more time to set up. Tech had
him scrambling most of the game.
FINAL THOUGHTS
QB Reggie McNeal is progressing nicely in Franchione's offense,
but he's still relying on his athleticism to carry himself
and the rest of the team through games. If he's hot, as he
was against Va. Tech, the Aggies have a better than average
chance of beating the Panthers. But there's no doubt that
QB Rob Rutherford is the real deal when it comes to the prototypical
drop-back passer. He's got the talent, poise and wide receiver
corps to cause the young A&M defense fits. A&M's inconsistent
running AND passing games have made 3rd down conversions and
sustained drives rare so far. Prior to the Tech game, A&M
had only one drive longer than seven minutes. They also have
shown a disturbing tendency to fade in the 4th quarter. With
Pittsburgh's ability to quickly drive down the field on the
strength of Rutherford's arm, the Aggies are going to have
to find a way to burn up the clock. The intangibles? Kyle
Field. If you're the visitor, is there a tougher atmosphere
in which to play a college football game west of the Mississippi?
Rutherford's arm and Pittsburgh's offense, though, will prove
the difference.
PICK:
PITTSBURGH 27 TEXAS A&M 24
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