By
Michael J. Wilson II (M go Blue)
Michigan Run Offense vs. Minnesota Run Defense
Advantage: Michigan
Michigan enters the game with the nations 23rd rated rushing
attack, good for 2nd best in the Big Ten. Michigan Sr. running
back Chris Perry is 5th in the nation in rushing, and tops
the Big Ten. Minnesota's run defense is ranked 51st in the
nation. Minnesota gave up 222 yards rushing to Ohio and 250
yards to Penn State, respectively. If Minnesota displays this
type of run support vs. a much better running team like Michigan,
Michigan could control the entire game, handily beating Minnesota
at home. However, Michigan has not chosen to run the ball
much in their last three games, averaging only 29 rushing
attempts a game for a 1-2 record, unlike the 50 rushing attempts
a game through their first three games, where they went 3-0.
They will need to run the ball much more against Minnesota.
Michigan Pass Offense vs. Minnesota Pass Defense
Advantage: Even
Michigan's pass offense is rated 32nd in the nation and leads
the entire Big Ten. John Navarre is the Big Ten leader in
total offense and touchdown passes. His 11 touchdown passes
is also good for 9th in the nation. Michigan may have the
most talented receiving unit not only in the big ten, but
in the entire nation. Minnesota counters with the nation's
10th-best passing defense, ranking 2nd in the Big Ten to only
Michigan's. Although Michigan has all the talent in the world
with their passing offense, and non-Minnesota fans would be
hard pressed to come up with the name of one individual in
Minnesota's secondary, Minnesota statistically holds their
own. If not for the drops by Michigan receivers (especially
on crucial 3rd down plays), Michigan would hold a slight advantage.
Minnesota Run Offense vs. Michigan Run Defense
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota enters the game with the nation's 3rd leading rushing
attack (best in the Big Ten) amassing 277 yards per game.
Michigan counters with the nation's 30th rushing defense.
Minnesota has four, count them - four, running backs that
average over 50 a game. The leading rusher in this group is
Marion Barber III, who also leads the entire nation in scoring
with 13 rushing TDs, good for 78 points. To add more firepower
to the running game, Minnesota has a decent scrambling quarterback
in Asad Abdul-Khalig. The good thing for Michigan fans is
that Michigan counters with a defense that held a quality
running team like Notre Dame to just 49 yards rushing. The
bad thing for Michigan fans is they also counter with the
same run-defense that gave up 218 yards on the ground to an
inferior Central Michigan team.
Minnesota Pass Offense vs. Michigan Pass Defense
Advantage: Even
Minnesota's pass offense is ranked a porous 76th. However,
it is a very deceiving statistic - why pass when your running
game is this good? When this team does pass, it is the 4th
most efficient in the entire nation. Minnesota senior quarterback
Asad Abdul-Khalig has an efficiency rating of 189.57, good
for first in the entire nation. The Wolverines will counter
this outstanding efficiency with the nation's 5th rated pass
defense. Michigan has an outstanding athletic secondary led
my Marlin Jackson at free safety. The secondary will have
its hands full covering wide receiver Jared Ellerson, who
is averaging over 85 yards a game, good for 2nd in the Big
Ten. Additionally, Michigan will need to be aware of tight
end Ben Utecht on crucial 3rd down plays, as he may be the
best tight end Michigan will see all year. Michigan has had
difficulties getting to the opposing team's quarterback, unlike
in recent years.
Special Teams
Advantage: Minnesota
Michigan has finally found their full-time field goal kicker
in true freshmen Garret Rivas. He has made 5-of-6 FGAs, and
should remain a consistent kicker for the rest of his career.
Michigan's freshmen punt return phenom Steve Breaston is 4th
in the nation and first in the Big Ten, averaging 17 yards
a return. The special team's positives stop there for these
Wolverines, though. The Wolverines display poor special teams
coverage and often get punts blocked (three so far by three
different punters). The punt unit alone lost the Iowa game
by having multiple punts blocked in a useless formation, and
by poor kickoff and punt coverage teams that gave up great
field position all day. Minnesota's field goal unit is equally
as solid as Michigan's, with Lloyd hitting 6-of-7 FGAs. However,
Minnesota's coverage teams has performed significantly better
than Michigan's, having not given up a TD on special teams
yet, and usually forcing their opponents to start with terrible
field position.
Intangibles
Michigan is 65-23-3 for a 73% all-time winning percentage
against Minnesota, with the average score being Michigan 23,
Minnesota 11. Michigan has also won 14 straight, and 31 of
the last 33. Lloyd Carr and most of the coaches under him
will be on the 'hot seat' if Michigan takes another loss and
begins the season at 4-3, especially with the talent level
this Michigan team has. This team was expected to challenge
for not only a Big Ten title, but the National Championship
as well. It is hard to imagine that mighty Michigan can take
another loss to yet another less talented team.
Minnesota
also has not been tested. While Michigan has played Notre
Dame, at Oregon and at Iowa, Minnesota has been playing a
few "high school" teams. With the exception of an
extremely down Penn State team, Minnesota has had the opportunity
to build up some nice rankings and statistics based on cupcke
eating. Since Michigan has the historical factor, extreme
pressure to win, and battle tested players on its side, what
does Minnesota have? For one, Minnesota takes better care
of the ball. Minnesota is 33rd with a +.67 turnover ratio,
whereas Michigan is ranked 89th with a -.67 turnover ratio.
Home-field advantage will also play a large role in supporting
Minnesota. However, the pressure for Michigan to win is too
great of a motivator for even turnovers and having road game
to displace, and that says it all.
Slight Advantage: Michigan.
Prediction:
Michigan 37 - Minnesota 27
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