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WHEN
THE TROJANS RUN |
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The
Trojans are loaded with TBs, going four and five deep
enough
for a #1 unit ranking nationally by many preseason prognosticators.
What has become known as the three-headed monster (a.k.a.
junior Hershel Dennis, along with sophomores LenDale
White and Reggie Bush) gives USC the multiple proven
ground dimensions few teams have. Each rushed
for over 500 yards in '03, while Bush led the team with
1,331 all-purpose yards, a school record for a frosh.
Bush came to Los Angeles highly touted after being named
a 2002 Parade All-American (and top Parade running back).
Reggie Bush is a star; anyone associated within this
program - boasting a history of lofty RBs - will tell
you he could end up as the best ever to wear the Cardinal
and Gold.
The
RBs are deep, especially in those with experience. But
the OL is another story, enough such that it is USC's
biggest question mark heading into this August battle.
Three key starters have departed (as seniors), and a
huge blow was dealt when NationalChamps.net Preseason
All-American OT Winston Justice was declared ineligible
by the school for disciplinary reasons. This early preseason
classic may be just the match up needed for this young
USC OL - Virginia Tech had issues in 2003 plugging the
middle as well as the outside.
Brothers
Jonathan and Kevin Lewis return in the heart of the
DL for the Hokies, but the once proud Beamer trademark
of quick penetration up front has had its difficulties.
The failure of the LBs to get off blocks, fill holes,
and make tackles was the most glaring problem for the
Hokie defense in 2003. The problem is magnified by the
loss of their best LB from this unit, Vegas Robinson.
This
battle in the trenches will be full of youth and inexperience
on both sides. Penalties and mistakes will likely be
a common theme. With all things equal this way, look
for the depth and caliber of Southern Cal's tailbacks
to be the difference here. But never count out Frank
Beamer's overachieving defense, especially this early.
SLIGHT EDGE: USC
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WHEN
THE HOKIES RUN |
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VT
has been capable of replacing RBs over the
course of their decade of dominance. In
steps Cedric Humes (for NFL-bound all-time
Hokie great Kevin Jones), the next sure-fire
1000-yard rusher in Blacksburg. Oh my
Humes
fractured his left fibula in spring practice
and is now in rehab for a few months. His
return for August may be likely, but how
effective he will be is too hard to predict.
Mike Imoh, the team's leading kick returner,
was the likely candidate to fill the TB
slot should Humes continue to hobble. But
off-the-field infractions leave Imoh suspended
for three games including this one. No fullback
returns with worthy real-game experience.
If Humes isn't ready physically, Beamer
is forced to dig into his third and fourth
team running back. If this happens, look
for WR Justin Hamilton to get some of the
reps as he did in the spring.
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The
good news is the return of four starting blockers
up front. One key will be replacing Rimington
Trophy Winner (awarded to the nation's best
center) Jake Grove. Most needed for Tech,
though, is for the QBs to create ground yardage,
too, which would go a long way towards freezing
the LBs a needed split-second or two more.
Now,
more bad news for the fledging Tech run
assault - USC finished as the nation's top
run defense in 2003 on their way to a National
Championship, giving up a stingy 60 yards
per game. What does that mean for 2004?
Well, USC will boast two All-American DTs
in Shaun Cody and Mike Patterson, both savvy
seniors. Cody has been moved to DE in (what
will prove to be) a marginal attempt to
replace NFL-bound underclassman Kenechi
Udeze. If the Trojans do have a concern
on the DL, it will be protecting the outside,
as injuries have forced a number of players
to vie for a starting spot. All questions
here are likely to be answered with gap
support, as USC returns each of its starting
three LBs. Junior MLB Lofa Tatupu is a freak,
taking away anything underneath seemingly
at will (four INTs). Senior Matt Grootegoed
has been the starting strongside LB for
three years now, and his ability to rarely
be out of position is a key for this defense's
seamless flow, especially as run-stoppers.
Instinctive and fast, he will merit All-America
consideration. Junior Dallas Sartz started
the last half of the season on the strong
side last year when Grootegoed had an ankle
sprain. And if that weren't enough, look
for incoming freshman Keith Rivers to step
in from the nation's consensus #1 recruiting
class. Rivers was considered by many recruiting
services as the top high school LB.
It
looks bad as of now for the
revamped VT backfield, but sporadic success
could be all they need to keep the USC LBs
busy in play-action to achieve aerial yardage
when needed. Smart money says Beamer employs
option-type roll-outs and misdirection that
will exploit USC's outside depth issues
and keep the Trojans guessing laterally
(but only if peppered in just enough and
not too much). If done too often, run blitzes
by the Trojans would neutralize Tech this
way. For some reason, if USC cannot
control this line of scrimmage, look for
a higher-scoring game to insue, which is
really the only scenario where Tech is competitive.
BIG EDGE: USC
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WHEN
THE TROJANS PASS |
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Carson
who? The now well-known Matt Leinart answered
any questions surrounding the loss of the
2002 Heisman QB, enough to make a Heisman
case of his own. In fact, many of Leinart's
numbers last fall surpassed those of Palmer's
- pass efficiency 164-149, only 9 INTs to
Palmer's 10 (same number of games, 13), and
TDs 38-33. Most important, though, is that
he directed USC to its first National Championship
since 1978. |
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One
conclusion has to be that current offensive
coordinator Norm Chow is evidently USC's best
passing weapon. His offensive system and play
calling is unparalleled in today's college
football world. But his shelf has been left
bare at receiver, as superstar Mike Williams
opted to make use of the NFL's "Maurice
Clarett Ruling" presently allowing anyone
of any age to announce for the draft. Williams'
status is now up to the NCAA as to whether
he will suit up in this opener. Should that
happen, you can slam the door on most opponents.
On the other side, steady snarler Keary Colbert's
senior leadership will be missed.
But
sophomores Steve Smith and Reggie Bush have
proven they can stretch defenses, and they
will surely step in to make Tech respect
the Trojan's passing dimensions. Listeners
will be sure to note just how well Head
Coach Pete Carroll has been recruiting the
last couple of winters - young studs dot
the receiving roster. Their names are unheralded,
but only until the season starts. Watch
out for local California native Whitney
Lewis and his multiple threat potential.
Combine Lewis with three All-American high
school "impact" freshman that
will step on the turf for the first time
(Fred Davis, Dwayne Jarrett and Derrick
Jones), once again, the question quickly
becomes up front. The newly reformed OL
will marginally (and then consistently)
stand up to a blitzing Hokie scheme that
is based on quick strikes and a ton of creative
heat.
Tech's
temperatures may vary, though, for gone
are both DEs for VT - Colas and Adibi have
finally moved on. Darryl Tapp will bring
pressure, but his mates up front have not
shown any real flashes in their pass rushing.
The Hokies took losses at so many positions,
and defensive back is no exception. All-World
CB/WR/PR DeAngelo Hall declared early for
the NFL. The nation's 76th ranked pass defense
of 2003 does have some talent, but not much
of it has starting experience. Jimmy Williams
and Eric Green can both play either the
ball or the developing play just as well,
as both are proven tacklers. The rest of
the safeties, along with the nickel- and
dime-package guys, are capable and eager
to fly around in Beamers' creative schemes.
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With
both the receiver-DB and OL-DL match-ups
rather comparable, the major difference
becomes Leinart's stellar stature. Look
for a classic Trojan war plan - the USC
run will set up a plethora of passing successes,
including a few TE zingers that should,
too, prove to be that extra bit of "Chow"
that Tech will not be able to handle.
EDGE: USC
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WHEN
THE HOKIES PASS |
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Plain
and simple
if VT is to have a shot in this one,
the passing game will have to be on target. Senior QB
Bryan Randall has the mechanics, feet and accuracy to
deliver, but this has not been proven against the
tougher Hokie opponents. By mid-October of 2003,
a 6-0 Hokie team looked to be on their way to a national
title run of their own. During that early stretch, an
extremely accurate Randall quickly ended any debates
concerning who plays QB with heralded Marcus Vick (yes,
NFL phenom Mike's younger brother, in case you have
been asleep at the VT wheel) pushing for playing time.
His completion percentage was tops nationwide; then
came the usual November Hokie shenanigans, and the wheels
came off the wagon as VT struggled to maintain any semblance
of a passing attack. To show how bad it got, Tech offset
all of their earlier success by winding up with a dismal
82nd-ranking in said category. Now Vick is gone after
well publicized legal infractions place his status in
limbo as a Hokie...possibly for good. Lord help the
Hokie nation if something happens to Randall's health.
While
accuracy has been there (at times) at QB, VT could never
muster a consistent deep threat in '03, and that fact
gets multiplied with the loss of their top receiver,
NFL-bound Ernest Wilford. Junior Justin Hamilton is
likely to be the key replacement, starting much of last
year. But don't look for his abilities to exceed what
Wilford bought to the table. Yet all totaled, Tech's
receivers should (unless secretly stocked with imminent
talent - which they aren't) prove manageable for the
Trojans.
USC
will counter with what many considered their weakest
link a year ago. Weakest link? Well, their 110th pass
defense ranking was offset by USC having the nation's
#1 run defense. Because of that statistic, already pass-happy
Pac Ten opponents would choose, each week, to take to
the air that much sooner. This ultimately resulted in
USC giving up 276 yards passing per game, but they skillfully
kept play in front of themselves well enough to rank
26th for pass-efficiency defense, a testament to why
this facet is no weakness.
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Both
starting corners are gone. Their replacements are experienced
seniors Ronald Nunn and Kevin Arbet, who received a
sixth year of eligibility due to injury, but neither
is close to Will Poole's level. Watch out for safety
Darnell Bing, an '03 freshman All-American with a rather
unlimited future. Pressure from the DL doesn't appear
to be as much of a factor with Randall at QB and his
short passing attack. The Trojan's ability to contain
will once again prove difficult with the USC thin list
of DEs. But the LBs are all returning starters, and,
if they do not overplay the run, their experience will
go a long way towards USC both limiting the underneath
stuff and freeing up helmets to track down Tech's elusive
one - Randall will surely improvise early and often.
In
the end, this is one of, if not the main dimension,
that will keep Tech within reach of what will be a sure-fire
Trojan offensive showing.
EDGE: EVEN
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SPECIAL
TEAMS |
Frank
Beamer knows special teams, coaching this segment
in addition to his other duties. But the Hokies
need a dependable kicker in 2004, period. Starter
Carter Warley has departed. Their return game
is the brightest spot, seemingly breaking open
so many tight ball games over the course of the
Beamer era. But gone is dangerous DeAngelo Hall
standing alone, waiting for the punt to fall (or
get blocked as the case often is). With Hall gone,
look for that traditional punt block specialty
to be chosen as more of a needed weapon, a scary,
risky notion. Mike Imoh and his 29+ yard per kickoff
return is no longer available (see above note).
This once stable special teams unit will have
a difficult time living up to past performances.
On
the other side, the list of All-Stars keeps on
rolling. Senior Ryan Killeen is a Lou Groza Award
Candidate for the nation's best kicker. Tom Malone
is a Ray Guy Award Candidate for the nation's
best punter, leading the nation last year with
49-yards per punt. And Pac Ten leader in kickoff
returns Reggie Bush, the first USC player to do
so since Anthony Davis in 1974, is back to give
the Trojans a 1-2-3 punch in special teams. Whew,
Coach Beamer will likely need a punt block to
keep this one close. If not for a VT track record
of consistent high performances in this department,
the edge would be glaringly noticeable.
EDGE: USC
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FINAL
OUTLOOK |
On
paper (see above mentioned) this BCA Classic looks
to be a major mismatch. USC is primed to defend
its national title and current NationalChamps.net
#1 preseason ranking with talent coming from all
angles. Enough chinks in the Trojan armor exist
within certain units (OL) to raise some questions
this early.
Unfortunately
for Virginia Tech, after back-to-back sub par
seasons by their usual self-imposed high standards,
the Hokies are in an awkward position of having
to prove themselves during a time when talent
departures leave many pockets of inexperience
and concerns. It's well known VT gets off to fast
starts, but many of those accolades could easily
be attributed to weaker competition faced early.
That's about to end (and end fast) in this August
gridiron special.
Given
the current preseason outlooks, these two football
carts appear to be headed in opposite directions.
"Just how far apart they are" is what
most of the nation will tune in to watch on August
28th via the game's ESPN Broadcast. Others would
be wise to take heed when facing Frank Beamer-coached
ball clubs - his uncanny ability to get the most
out his players will make this battle just close
enough to where a fumble or special team's quick
strike here or there could always give the home
team a chance.
Home
team you say? The game is in Landover, MD just
outside the capital, where a large contingent
(disproportionate amount) of fans from the state
of Virginia is likely to make the short travel
up and around the beltway. Surely not the same
as a Lane Stadium advantage, but Tech will take
any edge they can grab - quite a few intangibles
like this would have to coordinate for the Hokies
to win. Tech has to be within a touchdown early
in the fourth to even have a chance. The solace
here for Tech is that losing a game this early
to a team of this caliber will surely become a
valuable lesson Beamer will use for future 2004
successes.
SCORE
PREDICTION: USC 37 - VIRGINIA TECH 13
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THE
VIRGINIA TECH PRESS BOX
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