August
30, 2005
Since
we now redefine Louisville as a BSC-aligned team and not an
‘upstart’, who are the remaining small guys in
line for a possible BCS bid? After much ballyhooed consideration,
our job in paring this list down as far as we have wasn’t
an easy one. But if a BCS “Buster” comes from
a team other than these, we will dress up in tights and sachet
through Brookside Park before the Rose Bowl.
- Boise
State is impossible to ignore – not due to their blue
turf, but because they run the most balanced offense outside
of the Golden State. An easy bet – ask a football-savvy
friend if he/she knows whether State actually had a higher
ranked rushing or passing offense. The Broncos finally put
the proverbial horse in front of the cart as they ranked
14th in rushing and 20th in passing (though their 11th rank
in pass efficiency upsets our claim). Junior QB Jared Zabransky
is now in his second year at the helm, which means that
much more experience and that many less mistakes from this
sharp cookie. Only a weak secondary will keep Boise State
from fulfilling its BCS destiny.
- Fresno
State has the defensive wares to takes Boise down, but streaky
play has to be overcome before the Bulldogs can ascend to
permanent top 25 status. Last year’s three-game skid
after upsetting BCS-aligned squads at both Washington and
Kansas State sets a redeeming tone for 2005. But with an
eventual trip (November 19th) to see the defending champs
in L.A., along with visits from Toledo and Boise State,
this campaign won’t allow the Bulldogs much leeway
for both mistakes and BCS consideration. No matter how good
they seem in their tune-ups, Fresno’s front seven
won’t be able to stop those bigger foes from “running
the show”. Hindsight will have fans pointing to 2004
and mumbling “coulda-woulda-shoulda”.
- Problems
in 2004 - at both the season’s beginning and end -
cost Toledo many votes of confidence for this campaign.
Pollsters who might think Gradkowski can lift the No.47
(AP) Rockets past their current status as “big-time
wanna-be’s” will have to be convinced of such
since Toledo is 2-7 under Gradkowski against BCS-aligned
squads. Without any foes of such caliber slated (Temple
is now an independent), Toledo has to rely on its Tuesday
night tilts – one is September 27th out in Fresno
and the other is a likely MAC-championship preview at Bowling
Green to end (or define) their campaign – to prove
their worth.
- To
almost make this a round-robin, Bowling Green rides their
own superman (Omar Jacobs) into their September 21st matchup
out in Boise. But BG’s upstart status is first tested
against Wisconsin, making their road a bit tougher than
Toledo’s and the likely reason they win November 22nd’s
home tilt with the Rockets. This is the original home of
the spread option offense, and (the Meyer-recruited) Jacobs
has run their system (that Gregg Brandon has personally
perfected) efficiently enough (41TDs and only four INTs
in ‘04) to turn pollsters heads. Keep an eye on rural
Ohio.
One of
these four teams will be this year’s “BCS buster”,
if there is one. It may seem unjust that none will be a BCS
wildcard if they lose even one game. But a one-loss, top 10,
BCS-aligned team would genuinely beat any of these underdogs
if they too had a loss already, making some things right in
this imperfect world of opinionated rankings.
- Oh,
and by the way, Navy does not do nearly as well with their
undersized lines and new backfield, and it may be another
40-plus years until they win 10 in one season again. And
if you think Utah can rebound from losing Meyer, Smith and
(offensive coordinator) Dan Mullen, just watch…payback
is a bitch.
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