2004 Statistics

Quarterback
Air Force won with Shaun Carney. An injury to last season’s expected starter Adam Fitch meant Carney was given the job, becoming the first freshman in school history to start the opener, and the first frosh to start any game since 1986. Now, the Falcons know they’re set for three years. Carney put his solid arm on display by setting a school record for completion percentage (61.1), showed maturity by minimizing mistakes (11 TDs to just six INTs) and flashed his quickness to also lead the team in rushing. Air Force ranked low (108th) in passing offense, but only because the Falcons don’t do it much; not because they can’t. Carney’s efficiency rating (151.52) would have ranked No. 10 in the country had he had enough attempts to qualify (missed by one throw). He’ll be a true star in the MWC now that he has experience.

Running Back
With Carney behind center, there’s less pressure on the rest of the backfield, which is good because the Falcons lost talent here. As usual, they have plenty of backs ready to fill the void. The Falcons rely on their fullback perhaps more than any team in the country, and for good reason. Since 1990, the Falcons are 39-9 when they get 100 yards from their FB. That means this year’s starter, Jacobe Kendrick, has the speed to go with his prototypical size and strength. Justin Handley is a small/speedy halfback and he’ll get his share of carries. Fitch will have a big year, too. Recognizing Carney’s grip on the QB spot, Fitch changed positions. He’s a tremendous athlete (6-foot-10 high jump in high school) who has natural ability out the wazoo. The Falcons like to distribute the ball to many backs (seven backs had 40+ carries in ‘04), so even expect some unknowns to make this rushing attack again one of the country’s best.

Receiver
In the wishbone, just one receiver lines up, and most of the time that will be Jason Brown. Although the Falcons don’t throw much (23%), they do depend on their receivers’ physical presence (distraction, blocking chores) quite a bit. Brown has the speed and size to dominate most as he stretches a defense.

Tight End
Just like their WRs, Air Force tight ends typically don’t do much more than block, and with Robert McMenomy returning to the starting lineup, that won’t be a problem. He is strong, but it’s his quickness that makes him such a good blocker. When he does catch the ball, McMenomy is a threat (16.2 yards per catch).

Offensive Line
Four full-time starters are back, meaning their wishbone offense will be just fine. Tackles Robert Kraay and Ross Weaver are big, physical guys who have the mobility and technique needed for these schemes. Lawrence Hufford has played all three line positions, but coaches like his strength at guard. Curtis Grantham is a strong, brute force that hasn’t had a chance to prove himself (leg broke four plays into the 2004 opener). The anchor of the line is center Jon Wilson, a second-team all-MWC performer. Wilson fires off the ball quickly, which allows him to rack up the only individual stat linemen care much about (team-best 17.3 knockdown blocks per game). As a group, the AFA line will have a huge year.

OFFENSIVE BREAKDOWN
It’s never a secret what the Falcons are going to do. They’ve ranked in the top four nationally in rushing every year from 1998-2004. A year ago, their 277.36 yards per game ranked 4th. Even with a small amount of passing, the offense put up 425.45 yards (ranked 23rd), and scored nearly 30 points a game (36th). Like their service brethren (Navy), efficiency in the air is the key to keeping defenses from stacking the box and therefore the key to any offensive balance and/or success. Carney is the “real deal”, and the offensive line is as solid as it’s ever been. The Falcons also take care of the football, with just one fumble lost for every 81 rushing attempts. No reason to think the Falcons won’t once again flog opponent after opponent with their streamlined approach.

Defensive Line
Unlike a year ago, the Falcons have a good deal of experience coming back. DT Russ Mitscherling is the only returning starter, but ends Gilberto Perez and Nelson Mitchell both played enough to be a secure foundation here. Mitscherling is a bull and is strong against the run, but he needs to find opponents’ backfields more for this line to make itself formidable. Perez is coming off a solid year as Mitscherling’s backup, and now he’s been moved to the outside to utilize his speed. Expect him to “excel” the most. Mitchell has the least game experience, but is a tough player with solid speed for an end. Even though the trio itself combined for just one sack (by Perez) a year ago, the Falcons are more interested in them improving the run defense (ranked 101st), which they will do. But relying on three marginal linemen to go with a totally new LB group (see below) does not guarantee anything. Watch this area to see a barometer of how the entire team is doing.

Linebacker
Graduation hit this unit hard, leaving no returning starters. While they are green, the corps will lean on Marcus Brown, who has all the physical tools to be a star in the MWC – speed to track down runners and excel in pass coverage, and toughness to take down anyone. The big problem early will be continuity, because the other two starters – Overton Spence and Andrew Braley – sat out the spring with injuries. Spence also possesses a good mix of speed and power, and he’ll make big plays all year. Braley is more the size of a big safety. Because they’re untested as a group, the opposition will look to exploit underneath passing routes and instill play-action until they prove some worth. This is another area where team success will reflect how well the corps is developing.

Defensive Back
Air Force doesn’t run a traditional secondary. There are five DBs in the Air Force system, including a pair of “falcons” (rovers). These are typically their two top play-makers, for reading the developing scheme(s) has to be the strong-point for each. With speed and physicality, Denny Poland can make the play from anywhere on the field. He was second on the team in sacks (three), but also made his impact felt both through the air and against the run. Mark Carlson (team leader in tackles) has been moved from free safety to the other falcon slot to make better use of his all-around skills. When it comes to actually stopping the pass, though, nobody on the team is better than corner Chris Sutton.

DEFENSIVE BREAKDOWN
The Falcons took a major step back on defense in ‘04 (95th in total defense, 87th in scoring; down from 41st and 24th in ‘03). That mainly had to do with inexperience, which spells trouble because the Falcons don’t have much experience back again, either. Just five starters return, and only one in the front six. The Falcons often field a decent defense, so 2004’s performance was unexpected. Despite the inexperience all over the field, the Falcons will again produce good athletes who make plays. They’ll be drastically better than they were in 2004. Still, efficiency stats for Air Force’s opponents are unfortunately similar to those of the offense – this secondary allows foes to truly capitalize on their limited pass attempts (allowed 17 TDs and had only nine INTs). If this unit is again needed for excessive run-support, this entire D will suffer.