In the 10th year of the BCS and its controversial approach to naming a national champion, no team has ever won the title twice, regardless of the dynasties USC and Ohio State have both seemingly had as of late. This year, one team has to break this parity and earn their second of these vaunted titles in this, the biggest of all college football games. These two teams have emerged after the most unpredictable season most of us have ever witnessed. This one promises to supply plenty of top-notch pigskin action, and here we go trying to break down the big game and its many angles.

Coaching
Modest Advantage

The quick answer for which head coach we think gives his team the bigger advantage basically has to do with the number of times each has coached in a championship. Les Miles has never been to a championship game while coaching in any capacity at the collegiate level, let alone one for the BCS title. Jim Tressel has a rich history of achieving title shots and winning many of those chances. At Youngstown State (1986-2000), he went to the I-AA title game six times and won four (1991, ’93, ’94, ’97). Since at Ohio State, he has gone to two other BCS title games, losing to Florida last year and winning it all while going 14-0 in his second season (2002). That makes this his ninth chance to make the team he coaches the best in the nation…compared to none for Miles. That’s a most glaring difference.

The more intricate and revealing answer strikes at something we spoke of exactly a year ago as OSU was staring the Gators down. The SEC gauntlet the Tigers face (like that of UF in ’06) speaks volumes for Miles’ versatility and experience at the helm. At LSU, Miles has 14 wins over top 25 programs in his three years, including six just this year to set a school record. He also has more wins in his first three years than any coach at LSU has ever had during any three year span, and no other coach has ever led the Tigers to three straight years of 10 wins or more. This was the first season the Tigers have ever been ranked atop the BCS poll during the regular season. No one will ever forget how he went for it (and made it) each of five times on fourth down to help spur his team’s comeback from 10 points down for a 28-24 home win over last year’s title national champ Florida.

From another angle, Michigan-grad Miles never beat Ohio State as a player (1974-75), even though his teams went 18-3-2 and finished in the top 10 both years. As a Wolverine assistant, Miles was part of the 1993 payback effort that saw a previously undefeated Buckeye team get derailed from their national title hunt with a 28-0 defeat in Ann Arbor (Ohio State beat undefeated Michigan teams in the same manner in 1970, ’72, ’74-’75, hence the payback). That history meant a lot this past month as the Blue-and-Maize approached this highly successful alum regarding the vacancy for their top post. Many were surprised to see this journeyman coach turn down college football’s all-time winningest program, but such speaks volumes for his commitment to winning in Baton Rouge. Ok, we’ve played the ‘Les Miles has integrity’ angle.

Head-to-head, there was one game where the two coaches faced each other, and that was in the 2004 Alamo Bowl while Miles was head man at one of the other two OSUs – Oklahoma State. With one foot out the door to fill a recently-revealed job vacancy at LSU, Tressel got the best of the Cowboys as Ohio State cruised to an easy 33-7 win.

Both coaches had first-year starters at QB and each has strong results to show for it, with Miles implementing a Tebow-like rotation as rising star Ryan Perrilloux was poignantly injected to compliment Matt Flynn, while Tressel employed a single traditional drop-back type in Todd Boeckman. Motivation isn’t a weak point for either coach.

With the lumps his team took after waiting nearly two months last year prior to the big finale, coach Tressel won’t likely make the same mistakes two years straight. Whether he scrimmages the team at full speed and with full contact or not will likely dictate volumes as to how rusty his Buckeyes therefore appear to be. Then there are the distractions for his players in the Crescent City, a town of party pitfalls that many top coaches have seen their troops fall victim to. The 24/7 atmosphere in the downtown areas of New Orleans is something with which Tressel has never dealt, and 18-22 year old men will need worthy discipline if they are to make it to game-time without losing their focus. Tressel plans on bringing his guys in just three days prior to avoid this. Miles’ guys are used to this and many are actually from there. Advantage LSU? Well, even though the Tigers may be more used to such frivolity surrounding their team, the same angle holds true since family and friends can often prove to be a nuisance if a head coach doesn’t draw lines in the sand (and early). There is little advantage to location, if any (see INTANGIBLES section).

Even with all of these ways of looking at these two strong coaching minds, we still have to give an advantage to Tressel for his total body of work and past accomplishments at the championship level. Like Urban Meyer last year, Miles must keep Tressel guessing and off-balance with team speed via gutsy play-calling if he is to out-coach the Buckeye chief.

Quarterbacks
Slight Advantage

If you go by the numbers, it seems evident that Todd Boeckman’s No.13 pass efficiency number far outranks Matt Flynn’s 77th position on the charts. But LSU’s two-QB rotation sees five-star phenom Ryan Perrilloux step in one out of every four or five snaps, and his 175+ rating buoys the Tiger’s efforts at the helm. Still, without Perrilloux truly polished enough to start, his Tim Tebow-like insertions will have to be carefully/poignantly placed. In the end, there is just enough polish found on Boeckman, which will mean more stability than a two-QB system can guarantee.

Boeckman is 6’5 and uses every inch to survey the field and then move away from DL pressure with surprising quickness when necessary. He hits his targets on nearly 65% of his tries, and on a team that only throws it 37% of the time, Todd makes every throw matter. More impressively, he threw 25 TDs in just 304 attempts, making his TD% (8.46) fourth in the nation. The one dimension most teams discount are his feet - Boeckman was only sacked 14 times, and if you extract those sacks from his rushing numbers, he ran it as well as Flynn, at a clip of nearly six yards per run. This St. Henry-product has a keen pocket presence and keeps Ohio State from incurring many negative yardage results. Little is lost if backup Rob Schoenhoft is inserted, though, unlike Perrilloux, he has not seen the field that much and would limit the play calls. LSU just has to take the traditional route - get pressure from its front four and keep Boeckman in the pocket by not bull-rushing so as to lose containment. With all of its team speed, it would be embarrassing if LSU was beaten by Boeckman’s wheels instead of his arm.

Flynn is not the drop-back type, so his stats reflect such – he hits only 55% his passes, but his feet are relied upon a bit more, as are Perrilloux’. It is the way LSU employs their two field generals that has to be a red flag for Ohio State. As previously noted, the Tiger’s creative play-calling and QB rotation are reminiscent of Florida last year, and it was with these two things that they established the offensive consistency OSU had no answer for all night. The difference between the Gators and these Tigers should neutralize things a bit – Flynn isn’t a four-year starter like Chris Leak was, and Perrilloux (more of an outside speedster) cannot run between the tackles and over DLmen like Tebow could. Ohio State will do better if they can string Perrilloux out when he runs laterally, and if they can keep a spy on Flynn, who does look to run between the tackles on most of his tries. A spy would be able to react quickly to quality ball Flynn’s fakes, whereas not having a spy allows Flynn to use misdirection to fool multiple defenders at once. Ohio State will be looking for the run that much more when Perrilloux is in; though, it will be through his sheer athletic superiority that Ryan will be able to make plays on the Buckeye’s top-rated D, if he does. OSU had little answer for Tebow, and they will lose again if they have no answer for Perrilloux as a compliment to Flynn. A year older and with seven starters back, the Ohio State defense will be a year wiser.

The one unknown is how Boeckman will respond to LSU’s speed at DB and LB. Facing those Big Ten defenses just won’t quite prepare you for the size and speed that a top SEC defense must have. This is what undid Heisman Trophy winning QB Troy Smith and ultimately the Buckeyes in last year’s defeat – Smith went 4-for-14, earning just 35 yards as he threw an INT and was sacked five times after only going down 14 times prior to that (same as Boeckman this year). This LSU DL is just as talented as Florida’s, and their No.3 pass efficiency defense will be the best Ohio State has faced this season. Ok, so this might possibly be the best defense LSU has faced, too. Factor it all together to see the reason why OSU only gets a slight advantage in this department instead of a bigger one.

Running Backs
Modest Advantage

Wait…Buckeye fans have to be wondering…why doesn’t 2005 National H.S. Player of the Year and 2007 First Team All-Big Ten selection Chris Wells give Ohio State the advantage here? Simply put, it comes down to depth at the position. LSU has gotten loads of production from their RB reserves while OSU has struggled to find the same. Sure, it’s a given that sophomore Wells is (overall) probably a better runner than senior Jacob Hester, the Tiger’s main RB weapon. But LSU’s Keiland Williams, Trindon Holliday and Charles Scott (combined for 161 carries and 1185 yards) outweigh the Buckeye’s combination of Maurice Wells and Brandon Saine (163 carries for merely 634 yards) as far as the backups go.

More numbers that prove this point - Hester averages exactly five yards per run as his Tigers gain yards at a similar clip of over five per carry as a team; Wells may bust for 5.8 per carry, but Ohio State’s average of 4.6 per run shows how little the rest of the team gets. The LSU ground game has combined to produce 34 scores, compared to only 20 for Ohio State. LSU’s backs average over nine yards per catch, too, while OSU’s had less combined catches and averaged only a little over six per catch. As a team, LSU therefore stays fresher, a huge reason their four main backs only lost 73 combined yards while the Buckeye’s big three totaled 107 lost yards. As a team, it seems clear who has the deeper and more productive set of runners.

But that gets back to the first point we made about “Beanie” Wells’ advantage over Hester as a pure runner. Actually, they are rather comparable in their physical approach - both are super tough between the tackles and both have a nose for getting extra yards when all avenues seem closed. But whereas Hester is a more complete player who can (lead) block and play special teams just as well as he runs with the rock, Wells is that five-star prospect who can give his team a ball-control element that LSU more often lacks. That’s because LSU has had to come back in many of their wins, having few of their games in hand as things get nitty-gritty in the fourth quarter; Ohio State has ridden Wells’ determination to sizeable leads, and easy second halves were found almost weekly for the Big Ten’s top dog. Wells is that breakaway threat while Hester, who benches over 400 pounds, is as quick through holes but not as dangerous in the open field as Wells. Hester is no slouch – his team can also ride his talents for an entire drive – but he just cannot come out on top in a comparison with Wells.

In the end, OSU can win this game on the ground just as easily as LSU can, so any differences are marginal and limited to these types of journalistic fodder. The one X-factor seems to be Trindon Holliday, arguably the fastest player in college football. This guy is ironically similar to NFL rookie Ted Ginn, the Buckeye weapon from last year who, too, lacked category but was found most often in the backfield. Believe it or not, he is actually faster than the ex-OSU slasher. The SEC defenses have kept him in check, but can the Buckeye’s No.1 defensive unit shut Holliday down like they did Florida WR/TB and SEC Freshman of the Year Percy Harvin?

For two offenses that both averaged over 200 yards per game on the ground, it will come down to which defense can hold the other’s running game under this number. In other words, (without considering turnovers) whoever is the first to go over the 200 yard team rushing mark will probably win the game.

Receivers
Slight Advantage

The reasoning here for why the Tiger’s get the nod is similar to why they win the running back comparison – the overall depth of their entire WR three-deep. Also, the pure speed found on the outside for LSU is just awesome, featuring match-up problems galore when four- and five-receiver sets are utilized. It has been nearly five years that LSU has had one of the country’s top receiving corps from top to bottom, so even with the lanky pair of talented Brians (Robiskie and Hartline) pulling down big gains consistently for Ohio State, LSU has a better overall WR group.

Just like at RB, the two Buckeye starters here compare favorably on paper with Early Doucet and Brandon LaFell, gaining 400 more yards than their Tiger counterparts with almost the same number of catches. The Buckeye snarlers excel at running crisp routes and subsequently using open space to their advantage before the catch. This works especially well once they pull an eighth man into the box to stop Beanie. Robiskie will go up against the best secondary he has seen, and with limited experience against DBs that are this quick, he is a key target for LSU in shutting down the Buckeye passing game. It seems that if the Tigers can keep this big play threat under wraps, they can probably keep OSU from beating them through the air.

LSU receivers work with what their QBs can, running shorter routes (often out of the spread) and using open space more after the catch is made, for that valuable YAC. Large-bodied Doucet, once a deep threat, has really become a possession type, occupying overmatched LBs underneath while averaging less than 10 yards per catch as he provides an easily found target. Still, OSU would be foolish to think he is limited to this role. He and LaFell switch up who goes deep and who stays closer quite often, as do all of the reserves as they rotate in liberally.

Speaking of backups, one guy who tilts things LSU’s way is Demetrius Byrd – the four-star JUCO transfer (Pearl River CC) leads the team with seven TD catches as the third receiver. This is the guy who stretches the field most often for coach Miles. Compared to Ray Small, OSU’s third WR, Byrd is a head above. The other guy who gives LSU an upper hand comparatively is Richard Dixon at tight end. Buckeye TEs Rory Nicol and Jake Ballard combined have only one more catch (29) than Dixon does by himself (28), and almost 100 fewer yards to show for it than Dixon. Simply put, as a target, Dixon adds more to LSU’s receiving dimension than Nicol-Ballard do to expand the Buckeye aerial threat. Then there is the X-factor Holliday brings when he is lined up outside, forcing a corner or safety to commit to him, or else.

In the end analysis, LSU should be able to match-up well with Ohio State’s receivers, whereas the Buckeyes will find it harder to make sure they have their assignments sorted out. LSU’s linebackers are a bit more adept in coverage, too, so watch to see if the Tigers can exploit the underneath with Doucet and force Ohio State to pull their safeties up to help Laurinaitis and Freeman cover all of that speed. Florida had success this way, and you can bet it is an eventuality for Miles to play this card, too.

Offensive Line
Advantage - None

This is one of two areas within which things are dead even. Any advantages LSU seems to have in running the ball are negated since Ohio State is decisively better in pass protection. That translates into LSU having more mobile blockers to make their version of the spread work out of the run while Ohio State sets up a more traditional passing pocket and the linemen then stand their ground. Since it all starts up front, you can see why these two lines have taken their given offenses to the brink of a national championship.

Each school has two offensive linemen worthy of all-conference status – left siders Herman Jackson (guard) and Ciron Black (tackle) for LSU and tackles Alex Boone and Kirk Barton for the Buckeyes. Barton received All-American honors, too. The rest of their two-deeps look similar in size, speed and athleticism. LSU lost the services of All-American guard Will Arnold again for most of this year. The fifth-year senior has been a perennial name on injury reports (knee, ankle, kidney) and missed every game of 2007 since the second week against Virginia Tech with infections in his knees. He has been working out behind Lyle Hitt (on the right, not his normal side), but Arnold says that once his energy is back he only has to adjust a little bit of his usual technique to get back to old form. The good news is Arnold’s return for the title game looks probable, but his strength is still questionable, and therefore his ability to tip the scales in this OL comparison remains speculative, at best.

Defensive Line
Slight Advantage

This game will feature two stellar defensive lines. Each line has dealt with injuries and other setbacks, but both have seen new faces step up at needed times and both are proven to be gelled units that work together to optimize results. The differences are found statistically (like how OSU averages one sack more than LSU per game), which proves how either DL is capable of doing its job without much LB help.

Ohio State features Vernon Gholston, their All-American end (Second Team, AP) who can single-handedly control his side of the field. Whereas many rely on physical ability first, Gholston’s mind for the game allows him to use his natural talents to therefore be in position to take the needed action. Nearly half of his tackles have been for loss and he is tied for fifth in the nation with 13 sacks. This is the key guy for LSU to mark – the Tiger’s intricate spread elements won’t work if the play is blown up by Vernon at inception. Stopping this Detroit-native has to be priority one for offensive coordinator Gary Crowton.

When Buckeye bookend Lawrence Wilson broke his leg in the opener, the emergence of (true) Freshman All-American Cameron Heyward evened out any lull. The rest of the Buckeye ends are not as strong, so health is a factor if Heyward and/or Gholston are out. Wilson is a 50-50 for the big game – his father says he won’t go unless he is 100% since playing in that game would mean the junior loses this year’s red-shirt status. Even without his return, Ohio State is comparatively better on the outside.

Still, it is OSU’s no-name tackle rotation that makes this entire defense the nation’s top unit. Worthington, Abdallah, Larimore and Denlinger clog the middle as well as LSU does with All-American DT Glenn Dorsey and Marlon Favorite, a surprise for many Tiger fans who think their interior DLmen are the nation’s best. Dorsey, like Gholston on the outside, watches play development sharply and is usually in the right place to either make the stop or push his opposing linemen so as to disrupt any flow. He subsequently controls the middle and will force Buckeye RBs (Wells) to bounce outside more than usual. Favorite and Dorsey (awards won this year by Glenn – Lombardi, Outland, Nagurski) are better as starters, but for overall impact, the two-deeps are actually pretty even inside.

A few other numbers that tell the tale – LSU has allowed 13 rushing TDs while OSU leads the nation with a mere two. LSU also allows over three yards per carry to opposing rushers; the Buckeyes only allow 2.45 per carry. Sacks – 42 for Ohio State versus 32 for LSU. The talent comparisons seem pretty even on an individual basis, but when you add it all up, you can see why we pick Ohio State in this area.

Linebackers
Slight Advantage

Led by consensus All-American junior James Laurinaitis in the middle, the Buckeye linebacking corps is the heart and soul of their No.1 defense. When their defense was gutted after 2005, no one thought the OSU corps could rebound quickly. But the LBs led the defense to the ‘06 championship game and now have another year under their belt as they aim at this year’s top BCS prize. Coming out of the toughest defensive conference in the land, LSU boasts a bit more speed within their LBs. Though comparable, it just seems academic to give the nation’s top defense in almost every major statistical category the slight advantage…and we do mean slight.

Son of professional wrestler “the Animal” (of “Legion of Doom” fame), Laurinaitis won this year’s Butkus Award and last year’s Nagurski as he made every/any All-American list as a first-teamer. He is an ‘old school’ MLB, and that translates into superior run stopping skills. The best guy in coverage for the Buckeyes is weaksider Marcus Freeman; he had more TFLs and more passes defended than Laurinaitis, yet he barely garnered all-conference honors...hmm. These guys are in on almost every stop. Spitler and Grant have quietly bolstered this unit, but they, too, are more adept at stopping the run. OSU has faced some tough ground games, so the LB’s ability to keep their foes from establishing a solid running attack says much. But without having seen many strong passing teams, LSU’s underneath aerial attack is one key to winning the title.

Tiger WLB Ali Highsmith leads a corps that averages about 10 pounds lighter than OSU’s and accordingly is a step faster, too. This All-American (Second Team, AP) from Miami (Central) is like all of the LSU LBs – they play like bulked-up safeties. Highsmith and junior Darry Beckwith can match up against slot receivers with surprising effectiveness, and they should do well against the Buckeye’s third, fourth and fifth options when that many WRs are employed.

The fact that the LSU LBs are part of the top pass efficiency and top total defense in the SEC says as much, if not more, than Ohio State having the top defense in the country. Ohio State played no offense ranked higher than 31st (for overall production) while LSU saw three foes with an offense ranked in the top 25. So, if the Tiger LBs have any advantage, it’s that they have seen better opponents than their Buckeye counterparts.

Most wouldn’t think, going into this one game, that the LBs are the one unit Tressel has to focus upon most. But after this exact same scenario leading up to the title game last year, coach Jim has to see it coming this time around. Remember how amazing the Buckeyes looked in ’07 with Laurinaitis exploding onto the scene, keeping OSU seemingly untouchable on D? The first 11 opponents scored 12, 7, 7, 6, 17, 7, 7, 3, 0, 10 and 10, respectively, and Ohio State looked superior with the nation’s top scoring defense. Then, for some reason, few saw how vulnerable Ohio State was in winning their rivalry game with Michigan 42-39…the defense looked horrendous and the LBs were at the top of the blame list as the Wolverines pounded them up the middle and with underneath passing all day. We wrote about this last year before the championship game with Florida, and sure enough, Urban Meyer especially used the same underneath passing formula to eventually open up the deep middle later on his way to the win. Tressel has to see that Early Doucet and his buddies are going to do the same thing. Buckeye third-year DC Jim Heacock and his top unit couldn’t stop Illinois – the one team that beat Ohio State – as they ran the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter off the clock. The LBs seemed gassed, unable to stop the running plays they knew were coming. When Ryan Perrilloux comes in during the latter part of the game, he should have the same effectiveness with Devin Hester as Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall had, so watch to see if the OSU LBs have an answer for it this time. If not, you can bet Laurinaitis will be more inclined to come back for his senior season and finally get that SEC monkey off his back for a BCS title.

Secondary
Advantage – None

We tried…boy, did we try…but there are few qualitative difference between these two secondaries. Both have no size deficiencies – all of their DBs come in six-foot or taller. What LSU gives up in statistical differences is made up for with their strength of schedule. With both passing defenses ranked in the top ten, discussing which set of DBs is better seems moot.

What is worth discussing is Ohio State’s style of pass defense. Tressel likes to play his cover men back a bit and his safeties are kept deep on passing downs – foe’s biggest pass play of 2007 on the Buckeyes was 50 yards. This may work in the Big Ten, but Florida proved they could nickel-and-dime (and YAC) their way to a win last time against this type of coverage. Since we know LSU will throw underneath, OSU has to change their usual scheme and play up more so as to challenge the marginal Tiger hurlers to beat them deep. Aiding in this effort will be the emergence of RS frosh Chimdi Chekwa, the team’s third corner who leads the team in passes defended (10). Chekwa can play tight man-to-man, like All-American junior Malcolm Jenkins and (last year’s nickel guy) starter Donald Washington. Don’t be surprised to see Tressel keep all three in most of the time. It will be against the dime backs that Miles eventually finds matchup advantages he can exploit. Compared to last year, this will hopefully be what keeps their foes from shredding the OSU secondary (like they did when they stuck to their usual style of coverage against UF).

It all comes back to the quality of opponents and how much these secondaries have been tested. One prime example is how we saw senior Craig Steltz, LSU’s All-American safety, get lit up at critical times in the Tiger’s losses. Well, against the SEC powers that be, when you play his go-for-it style, you wind up paying for it sometimes. The point is, he and his fellow LSU DBs have seen some tough competition, whereas Buckeye safeties Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell haven’t seen anyone with a better passing offense than Northwestern. The Wildcats were a 7-5 team with the 11th ranked aerial attack, but more importantly, they were 69th in pass efficiency. What LSU is going to ‘throw’ at this Buckeye secondary, like the way Florida shocked them last time around, will be more than they are used to, and possibly more than they can handle.

We’ll say it again - the way the Buckeye back seven will adjust to the increased speed and talent levels of LSU’s WRs will dictate most whether OSU can remain No.1. LSU won’t be similarly shocked by anything the Buckeyes run, so their work is cut and dry for what they need to do to keep Ohio State’s passing game in check. Florida held Ohio State to just 35 passing yards, and LSU is capable of being just as dominant. Ohio State may have the No.1 passing D, but they had best be weary of what they need to do not to have a repeat performance.

Punting
Slight Advantage

Most who know about this game realize how much more valuable it is to control a punt than it is to kick it as far as possible. Tiger punter Patrick Fisher may have the 12th best average (43.9) in the country, but LSU’s net results do not reflect as well (35.5 yards per punt to rank 53rd). In those important field position battles like this game may feature, out-kicking your coverage can cost the Tigers the title. Fisher has to take that energy and kick it higher, if need be, or at least make sure the ball goes out of bounds or is otherwise unreturnable.

A.J. Trapasso gives Ohio State the edge here – 20% of his punts were fair caught (compared to 14% for Fisher), 38% landed inside the 20 (21% for Fisher), and only 12% went for touchbacks (23% for Fisher). His net results reflect these elements of control – 36.5 yards per punt to rank Ohio State 36th. This is the kind of advantage OSU has to capitalize upon to insure they pin this balanced LSU offense as deep as possible, as often as possible. In the Superdome, kicks sail, so Trapasso can get lots of leg, too, if needed.

Coverage
Slight Advantage

The Buckeyes only allowed foes a total of 82 punt return yards on the scant 18 that were returnable (4.6 average). LSU allowed 199 yards on 21 returns (9.5 average), and they allowed two to be run back all the way, whereas OSU didn’t allow a PR score all year. It’s all flipped around for kickoff returns – Ohio State allowed two TDs and one more yard per KR than LSU, which allowed no KR scores. The difference is Ohio State was pretty tight on their kick coverage otherwise, but LSU struggled all year to contain their opponents on punts. LSU has to bring this together with Fisher’s efforts (see PUNTING section) if the Tigers are to avoid having a punt return be the deciding factor.

Kicking
Slight Advantage

The numbers are deceiving since Colt David, the Tiger’s All-SEC placekicker, had nearly 50% more tries (11 more) than OSU’s Ryan Pretorius. David was solid, but 22 of his 32 tries came from within 40 yards. From beyond the critical 40-yard mark, he was 6-for-10. Pretorius hit a better percentage overall than David (81% vs. 78%) and was 6-for-7 from beyond the 40. Really, when you factor in the three blocked kicks (not Prestorius’ fault), he missed only one try. This South African Rugby enthusiast also brings two other factors that David lacks – he has (more) maturity since he is 28, and he is a true 11th man for the coverage units that isn’t afraid to pursue the ball-carrier. These guys are both strong legs – Pretorius’ is a bit stronger – with consistent results, and they both have coaches that know how to use them. Who knew David could run so well on that picture-perfect fake when he scored against South Carolina to help seal the Bayou Bengal’s 28-16 victory?

This unit is really close to call, but Pretorius gets the figurative nod. Either one could be the goat or the hero, like all kickers know, so splitting hairs here won’t reveal any real advantage for either team.

Returns
Slight Advantage

There is danger all around with any of the quality return men both teams employ. Differences are simple – LSU is better returning kick and Ohio State is better returning punts. Each team has a TD. It really comes down to the fact that LSU just stunk more at PRs than OSU did at KRs.

Think about this: LSU made foes punt 79 times, and 20 of those were fair caught while four were touchbacks. Of the 55 remaining punts, only 22 of those were returned. In other words, opponents kept LSU’s punt return game in check by controlling the other 33 punts and keeping them out of the hands of Chad Jones & Co. A local product (Southern Lab), Jones runs the 40 meter dash in 4.5 seconds, so we wonder why the plethora of faster choices from which coach Miles has to choose yield this true freshman.

In today’s college football world of kicking off from the 30, Ohio State’s 17.6 yard average per kick return still means starting their next drive with decent field position. LSU cannot afford to be weighed down by inferior punt returns that result in Ohio State pinning them deep. Both teams are capable of breaking the big one at any time, so don’t be caught at the fridge during (possibly game deciding) kick returns.

Depth/Backups
Modest Advantage

This advantage is mainly due to the Tiger’s stockpile of offensive weapons, and their willingness to use them. It is possible for LSU to prepare for most of Ohio State’s wrinkles, but it would be impossible for Ohio State to even come close to having a plan for all of the Tiger’s offensive facets. LSU has eight receivers with 100+ receiving yards and four with at least 300; Ohio State has only four with 100+ and two with 300+. Factor in all of LSU’s RBs and their tandem QBs, and you can see why we give LSU this nod. On defense, it is pretty comparable, and there are no depth advantages on special teams. Faster overall team speed and more depth means Ohio State has to be aware of fatigue when things are close in the latter stages.

Strength of Schedule
Major Advantage

Similar to the results Richard Billingsly has concocted, USA Today-Jeff Saragin SOS ratings rank the SEC as the nation’s toughest conference. The Big ten comes in 6th, the worst of all BCS-aligned conferences. LSU has the 21st toughest schedule in FBS (formerly I-A) and OSU the 62nd toughest. LSU faced six top 30 teams (went 4-2); OSU saw four (3-1). Two of the Tiger’s foes were in the top ten (2-0); none of OSU’s foes was that highly rated. Currently, six SEC teams reside in the BCS top 25; the Big Ten only places three. It is obvious just to even the casual fan that the SEC is just a tougher conference to be in, year in and year out.

You’ve heard us harp on it in many of these sections, but it cannot be stated enough how significant the difference between these two teams’ list of opponents are and how that will translate. This is no different than the buildup to last year’s title game, when we (and many others) noted how an SEC team could actually find it rather easy to compete with the vaunted Buckeyes. Few gave Florida a chance after analysis on paper seemed to clearly point to OSU as the team with the upper hand. We all know how poor Ohio State looked, seemingly a step slower and on their heels all night. Illinois, the best team OSU faced, was able to handle the Buckeyes in Columbus. Against LSU, it could be another long night if this class distinction again comes true.

Intangibles
Advantage

There are two main issues here – Jim Tressel’s experience in big games and the LSU “home field” advantage in playing an hour from home. We already told you how much experience Tressel has had in championships (see COACHING section) at this and the FCS (formerly I-AA) level. Given his superior knowledge of how football works, we expect more from his team this time around. The experience the Buckeyes now have with their ’07 defense gives Tressel the ability to keep the same mistakes from happening again.

In the ’06 season, only three OSU starters and few others with much (if any) experience on defense came back. This year, almost the entire starting back seven was returning starters, and the front four has played like veterans. What the Buckeye stoppers learned from seeing so much speed and chasing it from behind all game versus Florida gives Tressel the platform to apply such lessons toward this game with great affect. This is one of the great coaches in Ohio State history, and he will likely go down in the annals as the best next to Woody Hayes, regardless of this game’s outcome. If there is anyone who is capable of devising a plan to beat that dangerous underneath speed his LBs and nickel guys are sure to see, it is the man from Mentor. Besides the consistency of the ground game on offense and the experience found in the nation’s top defense, having Jim Tressel as their head coach gives OSU its greatest advantage.

The other issue is LSU being from Baton Rouge and the game being played in New Orleans, just 60 miles down the road. Recently, it has been a true boon for the Tigers to go to the Crescent City since they are 3-0 in Sugar Bowls this millennium. But this is not a historically accurate representation - LSU is 3-2 since 1970 in Sugar Bowl games and only 6-7-1 all-time in this prestigious game. Furthermore, they are a scant 8-14-1 all-time in any game played down east on I-10. It is just the opposite in the rest of the state – LSU is 24-9 all-time in the rest of the state, and 3-0 in Shreveport since 1970. This shows that it is a mixed bag for the Bengals on their Bayou, though, the 3-0 mark they have in Sugar Bowls since 2000 stands out in these stats.

It is an advantage, no doubt, that LSU is so close to their fan base. But just how big of one remains a mystery. See, Ohio State travels well, with a support system and legions of Buckeyes in every corner of the nation. The big win in Austin last year, three wins in their last four tries at the Big House (all under coach Jim) and Tressel’s 17-7 Big Ten road record combined with his 7-3 non-Big Ten mark (24-10) all show how LSU gets less of an advantage against Ohio State than they would over most foes who would come into Louisiana.

Lots of Tiger fans in their home state will mean something only if LSU can get a lead. Then, the “12th man” influences can have bite. If OSU is up later into the second half, the substantial (yet still in the minority) Buckeye fan influence will make it like playing on a neutral field. Technically, that’s what it is, a neutral place that was arbitrarily chose years ago, before anyone knew how this season and its crazed flow would pan out.

That touches on the field type and what advantages LSU gets just not having to play up in Columbus, on the frozen (precipitous) turf in sub-freezing temps. Speed in the Superdome will translate to an LSU advantage in some ways, but it will also allow for OSU to bring its speed to bear, which isn’t as much in the game plan for their outdoor November conference wars. That part of the equation is clear and gives LSU some upper hand, but not too much. We hear the weather is supposed to be good in the dome, so bank on OSU keeping up this time.

Final Analysis

We all know how turbulent this college football season has been. What it has meant most is that there are no superior teams that stand above the rest. Everyone and anyone who was No.1 or 2 this year lost at some time while in their lofty position, including LSU and Ohio State. Even though LSU is a five point favorite (at this juncture), very little props them up this way in terms of advantages or mismatches. It is mostly due to the immediate location of the game being so close (see INTANGIBLES section), which really isn’t much of an advantage in the end. Each team has an excellent chance of succeeding at their given game plans for victory with so much talent everywhere and in all sizes. It will be a better game, guaranteed, than last year’s route.

So, how do you beat the Buckeyes in 2007? The same way you beat these Tigers – with a speedy QB who can turn coverage sacks into big gains that change the entire game’s momentum. LSU has this and plans their game around using Perrilloux’s and Flynn’s feet. OSU has a QB with decent speed, but they do not put many planned QB rushes into their weekly offensive scheme. Hmmm…it seems obvious that Tressel will put more plays that utilize Boeckman’s wheels since this is how Arkansas and Kentucky gained their advantage(s). LSU is going to cover the Buckeye receivers well, so Boeckman cannot just sit in that pocket hoping something will eventually come open. Troy Smith beat Michigan three times and won the Heisman Trophy with his feet in these types of passing play breakdowns, so what happened to his mobility in the title game (sacked five times) translated into those listless drives within which OSU never looked in sync and eventually lost.

Tressel has to do a few of these planned runs for his QB early to make LSU commit one of those speedy LBs to stopping this, and then he can find passing lanes open underneath, the Buckeyes best bet for then setting up some deeper strikes. This sequence is a key to opening up the field, and against this speedy LSU defense, OSU’s usual game plan this year likely won’t work well enough to assure the win. Can his players adapt to such a new game plan? Ohio State hasn’t had to reinvent itself since last year versus Florida (and they failed to make the needed adjustments then), so watch this as a barometer for how the game is flowing.

Even with all of this analysis and discussion in detail about how OSU has a strong team, if LSU can play mistake-free ball for 60 minutes next Monday, even if OSU does the same, they will take the short trip back to “Red Stick” with the win. If this game is played 100 times, the Buckeyes may win it 40 of those times…but that isn’t how this deal works…one game, one chance at destiny. Ohio State has to force turnovers to win. The 50 day layoff Tressel is combating (versus 37 days since the SEC championship for LSU) means his guys have to hit the ground running, or else risk chasing the Tiger’s tail like they did the Gator’s tail…and neither is recommended. Like last year, the speed and size they will see will be a bit new and will smack them proverbially in the mouth. But the difference this time is they will swing back. But if they let LSU establish a consistent running game, it won’t matter how much OSU wins the TO-margin battle. Ohio State has a mountain to climb in the flat Pelican State.

But by taking on the underdog role, Tressel’s troops can mimic the “us-versus-the-world” attitude that won them the title in 2002-03. That is a lot of how UF won it last year, when few gave them any shot since OSU went from week one until the final pre-bowl poll as the No.1 team in the country. Such a rallying cry can work wonders in team sports, especially football. The OSU defense has a chip on their shoulders, and “mini Animal” (Laurinaitis) has been wearing his Big Ten championship ring all season to remind him of the near miss from last time for even more motivation…he wants the other, more important ring Tebow and his mates now wear.