2006 Statistics

The triple “flexbone” option that defined the Falcons for over two decades under DeBerry isn’t going to be discarded like many believe. Instead, Tim Horton, who served here as an assistant but has never been a coordinator, will learn to juggle the spread, the ‘I’ and the flexbone as he is mentored by coach Calhoun. Predictability was slowly killing the Falcon offense in these modern days of innovation, so Calhoun and Horton will play-call to their players’ strengths instead of asking them all to bend to the rigidity of the archaic wishbone-type running plays (AFA ran 80% of the time). This won’t be a problem for their signal caller, Shuan Carney, who ran a variation of the spread in high school – his senior prep campaign yielded 3,849 passing yards and 30 TDs, which nearly eclipses his career AFA totals of 3,900 yards and 30 TDs. The all-conference senior is only 5’10, and with the newness and unpredictability of the spread, don’t be surprised when Horton has him roll out on pass plays to get him a better view downfield. Carney makes good decisions, but he will have to learn to throw it away more often instead of running it if/when receivers aren’t open. Backup Eric Herbert looked decent in spring reps, but his lack of experience and size means former backup Jim Ollis could still find himself behind center, if necessary. Horton has been keen on the quick, well-sized Ollis being utilized somehow/where since his last tenure under DeBerry, and the move is a good one that keeps defenses guessing when he is in the backfield. Another player looking to expand his responsibility is 2006’s team leading rusher, smallish senior Chad Hall. Moved to become the official ‘Z’ receiver, All-MWC Hall now plays a Reggie Bush-type of ‘slash’ role, lining up in different capacities to promote matchup troubles. Hall’s move is due to the confidence coaches have in Chad Smith, a heady senior who led the team with his 6.2 ypc average. But the main reason most running plays have worked in the recent past is due to fullback Ryan Williams – he’s that unsung kind of hero, the one whose blocks always make more room for a Falcon runner and who always gets positive yards when given the rock (oops, he did lose a few yards…a total of two during his 174 carrier carries). The poignancy of using these weapons en mass (via the flexbone) should have even more damage with foes spread out and forced to send extra men into coverage. The linemen only return two with starting experience – Blaine Guenther moves back to center and Nicholas Charles has bulked up to make his mobility work better. Guenther is their best lineman, and being able to oversee the blocking calls will help the new faces in these ever-intricate schemes. Chris Monson’s move from DE has gone well so far; with the increased passing, this former prep TE’s assignment at left tackle is just as important as Guenther’s and he has the toughness to overcome his size deficiency. Seniors Ryan Zeman and Caleb Morris earned their starts, but they will have to prove their worth before many runs are sent to their right side. Lighter linemen mean worthy downfield/lateral blocking, but how they fare as a unit in the spread could cause coaches to readjust the line’s look accordingly. Travis Dekker will find himself downfield in the pattern more since coaches have been clear about expanding the tight end’s capacity. Receiver Mark Root, like Dekker, will become a field-stretcher since the two of them are the biggest targets available. Prep state sprint champ (100m & 200m, Utah) Matt Davis is too fast not to have a contributing role as a Z-slot reserve. It is important more receivers are found, for the multiple-WR sets now seen here need to have enough threat so DBs/LBs will be effectively spread and will also bite on (play-action) fakes. Carney thrived all spring, but the rest of the offensive players, recruited/procured mostly for the flexbone, are still adapting, hence the continued inclusion of the old approach. A confident QB means this offense should do better than many that are in first-year regimes and dealing with revamped strategies, but growing pains and fine tuning shouldn’t affect where the AFA offense will find itself by November.

For the past few years, this side of the ball has been the main reason the Falcons haven’t had a winning record. They allowed fewer points in ’06 than the two previous years, but four of the six games in which they allowed 30+ (all six were losses) last year occurred in the second half of the season, and allowing 42 points to bottom-feeder UNLV (2-11) was an ominous swansong for DeBerry. Enter coordinator Tim DeRuyter, a former AFA player/assistant who returns after his successful tenure as DC at Nevada and Ohio. DeRuyter’s 2006 results in Reno saw only Arizona State, Hawai’i and Boise State break the 30-point barrier, and his guys holding Miami to 21 points in their bowl loss shows his ability to motivate. Six legitimate starters out of the front seven should mean improvements to Air Force’s No.68 rushing defense. The two starting ends in the new-look 3-4 are well-sized and hungry – Ryan Kemp is a 255-lb. top-notch high jumper, while heady ex-LB Jake Paulson regularly takes up two blockers, as does former starter Josh Clayton (lost the start when he broke his wrist). The tackle is tough, but Jared Marvin is simply too small (at 230lbs.) to force the amount of double-teams a NT must command. Lifetime AFA-er Keith Williams offers more size and will see lots of reps if/when Marvin comes up short as a clogger. Inside linebacker Drew Fowler will clean up the middle with his all-conference status; the senior is the best defenseman on the team, nearly doubling the tackles of OLB John Rabold. Fellow outsider Julian Madrid is another senior who excels in coverage, but he tentatively lost his starting nod to Hunter Altman since he was held out this spring recovering from a knee injury. Aaron Shanor played his way into the start at the other inside linebacker spot through his fabulous spring showing, but he will have to stay on top of his game to hold off experienced senior Austin Randle. The corps (and the entire front seven, sans the NT) has the athleticism and size to keep up with foes at any level, so adding an extra guy can only help their stat line(s) as they swarm. Still, more sacks and TFLs are needed for this D to take it to any ‘next levels’. The secondary features Bobby Giannini, their free safety who is great in run support but marginal (at best) when the rock is thrown. Soph Chris Thomas has the same moniker, and with other underclassmen behind both, something will have to give for the Falcons not to eventually pay huge costs due to these factors. Senior corner Garrett Rybak did well as the No.2 corner last year, but handling the top assignment(s) weekly now could prove too much. Senior Carson Bird lulled last year after a standout sophomore campaign, but speedy Nathan Smith will push Bird as he realizes his climb up the learning curve. This secondary broke up a mere 21 of their foes’ 300+ passes, had a modest nine INTs, and allowed two-thirds of their attempts to be completed on the way to 20 aerial scores. Furthermore, the defense allowed opponents to convert 56% of their third-down tries and gave up 4.1 ypc on runs. The new staff has to get the pass rush up to par before the passing defense can make some big plays and have the desired impact. With their largest lineman listed at 260, speed and teamwork have to compensate against those bigger opponents…and, after three years of that “maybe” happening (but which leads to eventual failure), proof will only be found in the pudding.