February
23, 2024
by
site owner Todd
Helmick (BIO)
THE
FUTURE OF COLLEGE ATHLETICS (Part II) - PREDICTIONS
Florida State will leave the ACC for a P2 conference
(Big Ten).
Clemson, North Carolina, Miami and Virginia also leave
for a P2 conference. Or at least two of them will. Clemson
and North Carolina to the SEC.
Notre Dame will be a package deal with FSU for all sports
including football (Big Ten).
The rest of the ACC will head to the Big 12 or a G5
conference.
Duke basketball will be a twin UConn in a basketball
league such as the Big East, football will be forced
to join a G5 conference or become an independent.
California and Stanford will rejoin the Pac 12 along
with SMU after the ACC dissolves.
The Pac 12 remainders Oregon State and Washington State
will combine with the Mountain West and a few other
G5 teams to be determined and the Pac 12 will keep its
name.
The Pac 12 will not be a union with the Power Conference
structure.
Three Power Conferences "P3" will remain -
Big Ten, SEC, Big 12.
The CFP (College Football Playoffs) will expand to 16
teams (instead of just 12) by 2025.
The Big Ten and SEC will each receive four guaranteed
AQ (Automatic Qualifier) slots for the new 16 team playoff
system - 8 in total.
The P2 will separate from the other conferences in football
by the year 2030 and have their own playoff format and
national champion.
The remaining teams will form their own football consortium
and do the same.
The other sports will not be affected.
Basketball leagues will be reestablished.
PART
III to be continued...
- Both the NIL and the Transfer Portal will have regulation,
at least in the P3.
- Student-Athletes will continue to be paid but under
contractual form, which will help regulate the Transfer
Portal issues.
- Scholarships will no longer be required for NIL purposes
and will become part of the contract.
- Scholarship limits will be removed, but roster totals
for all sports will have limits. Football roster limits
will go over the current 85 total.
- Student-Athletes will not move to "employees
of the university" status.
- The NCAA, if it still exists in current form, will
not govern the new P2 alliance. The P2 will be self-governing.
- Title IX will have no jurisdiction in how much student-athletes
are paid, but scholarship/roster totals for men and
women will remain even.
CONFERENCE
REALIGNMENT - ACC DOMINOES
Conference realignment isn't over, bank on that much.
The P2 is not finished adding teams, bank on that much.
The who's, why's and where's can get somewhat sticky
at this juncture. But one aspect is certain:
Florida
State is leaving the ACC. That end result is a matter
of when and how much it costs, not if. Despite all the
legal ramblings, the Seminoles will wind up in one of
P2 conferences by 2025. Once this hammer falls others
will follow and the ACC will no longer exist. It's done,
finished. Mostly due to poor management, poor media
agreements and a commitment to Tobacco Road while ignoring
the needs of others outside the state of North Carolina.
The ACC recently announced the Future
Neutral Site Championship locations for all sports
through 2029 and they are all in Greensboro, Charlotte,
Raleigh and Durham. So much for equality.
The
ACC ship has been taking on water for quite some time.
Just ask Maryland fans, who count their blessings every
day for leaving in 2014
to join the Big Ten. Members of the ACC are getting
$20 to $30 million less than teams in the P2 and the
gap will only grow. With the current structure of college
athletics there is no competing at the highest level
given such a financial gap.
NOTRE
DAME AND FSU TO THE BIG TEN
So many questions and potential possibilities exist
once this ACC domino falls. Based on all the sports
forums, talk shows big and small, YouTube Channels and
X (formerly Twitter) - all of whom claim to have inside
sources - these are the biggest predictions from those
at the top of the insider heap:
FSU
and Notre Dame will be a package deal for the Big Ten.
Seriously? Through 137 years of existence, Notre Dame
football has ALWAYS remained independent. The college
landscape is about to make century level changes. The
new playoff format is not going to give Notre Dame the
"special" status the Irish deem as normal
procedure. The financial terms of B1G football media
rights exceeds anything NBC can offer solely to Notre
Dame. On top of that, NBC is now a partner of the Big
Ten and those Peacock executives want the merger. Money
talks and the Irish will walk, a geographical and financial
marriage that not even the Vatican could have arranged
better. The move won't be instant, but sooner than most
believe.
Florida
State is going to the Big Ten, not the SEC. Despite
FSU not currently being an AAU member like 13 out of
14 current Big Ten members represent, that ESPN/SEC
ship sailed (ESPN has full SEC media rights). That decision
was all but decided a year ago apparently behind closed
doors and then further strengthened by the fact ESPN
just accused FSU of criminal activity for revealing
ESPN trade secrets in their legal battle with the ACC.
The Big Ten just struck gold at the end of the P2 Rainbow.
Notre Dame and FSU football, that's big, really B1G.
The Big Ten footprint now goes into the Sunshine State
and into Catholic television sets world wide.
THE
CALIFORNIA EXPRESS
The most recent disaster in this process was the ACC
adding California, Stanford and SMU to the league for
2024. This was a total life jacket grabbing maneuver
by both sides, especially considering the ACC is about
to implode. Their additions devalue the ACC television
market and does not provide any financial compensation
for Cal, Stanford or SMU in the short term, including
how much those three express additions get compensated
for traveling from Atlantic to Pacific. Gee, the traffic
is terrific.
WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE REST OF THE ACC?
Clemson and North Carolina are going to the SEC. Greg
Sankey, the commissioner of the SEC, has made it clear
those programs are top line expansion choices. The enigma
in the equation will be Miami and to a lesser degree
Virginia. Miami is an AAU member private institution.
If anyone believes the Hurricanes with their history
of football the past 45 years is going to be left out
of the big boy club without a fight...think again. Expect
Miami to land in one of the P2 conferences, but it may
take another five years or so before the offer is extended.
Keep in mind however, that by 2030 the annual financial
gap between P2 schools and everyone else will be around
$50 million. That's a gap. Miami administrators would
be well advised to get off their seat and make some
noise concerning a transition to another league as opposed
to sitting/waiting to see what FSU and Notre Dame decides.
Virginia
is a highly regarded AAU member just as well. There
have been a large handful of realignment discussions
that do bring up UVA in regards to the P2. If an institution
is not bringing gigantic media footprints, then academics
better be one of those accolades sought after by the
Big Ten. The SEC not so much in regards to AAU status.
Five ACC schools are AAU members, Virginia Tech is not
one of them. If that's a must-have for the Big Ten,
then smaller media market Virginia Tech is on the outside
looking in. However, Virginia and Virginia Tech are
not a package deal. In fact, the odds say both end up
in different conferences.
BIG
12 / PAC 12 / P3 / G6
The Big 12 could potentially expand to as many as 30-40
teams for a mega conference while picking up ACC teams
left outside the P2 along with a a host of potential
G5 higher profile programs. If anything, just to make
sure the Big 12 carries somewhat of a similar market
clout marshaled by the P2...making this a P3 world.
The invitation to the Big 12, like everything else in
this realignment era, has to do with football television
power and regional footprints.
Watch
for the Pac 12 - which currently is the Pac 2 containing
Oregon State and Washington State - to merge with the
Mountain West Conference. California and Stanford will
move back home along with SMU wheeling and dealing for
the same. The Pac 12 will have a Texas footprint in
all likelihood. The league will keep the traditional
Pac 12 name, but won't be given Power Conference status
that comes with higher payouts and playoff automatic
qualifier (AQ) status. In short, the new Pac 12 will
make the G5 entity a G6 entity.
DUKE
BASKETBALL
Oh man, a basketball legend is caught in the middle
of a football driving machine. The Blue Devil pigskin
program doesn't have a draw. Probably not enough to
where the basketball program can warrant their athletic
program Power Conference status. Why the Duke question
is important in all this realignment discussion has
to do with the fate of men's basketball madness as a
whole for those outside power conference status, not
just for Duke. Is their fate affected when the P2 manufactures
its own football identity? The term to make sure your
school has a seat at the big boy table is March Madness
"Leverage". And that "Leverage"
for schools looking outside the P2 window is on the
table now, even more so by the time all this football
alliance unravels come summer. If P2 football status
is the box of dynamite -- schools like Duke, Louisville
and UConn are the fuse. Non-P2 schools have won 14 of
the last 15 men's basketball national championships.
They can take their hoops prowess ball and go home to
form their own March Madness Tournament with all the
other non-P2 schools. Be careful what you wish for.
COLLEGE
FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS - Big Ten and SEC do it alone
The new 12 team playoff format commences in 2024. Expect
the number to jump to 16 teams by 2025. The P2 wants
eight guaranteed AQ slots. And they are going to get
it like many other things they demand. The majority
train of thought is that the P2 will grow to a point
financially through media rights domination and their
own rules interpretation that they will eventually split
(maybe before 2030) into their own league, separate
from the rest with their own rules, their own playoff
format, their own champions.
We
could be looking at another Division I alliance in college
athletics that go beyond FBS and FCS. Different minor
league levels (or tiers) so to speak.
The
P2 crowd just assumes the outsiders will do as they
are told. Once again, be careful what you wish for.
It
ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.
It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.
CONTINUE
TO THE
FUTURE OF COLLEGE ATHLETICS (Part III)
coming soon
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