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week NationalChamps.net will be picking several
games to breakdown while predicting against the
point spread. NationalChamps.net does not support
sports betting and is in no way affiliated with
online sports bet organizations including advertising
clients. This is strictly for enjoyment purposes
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WEEK
1
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EDGE
Breakdown
Maryland vs. Notre Dame
Clemson at Georgia
PICKS
AGAINST THE SPREAD - WEEK 1
INSIDE99: (1-0 overall)
Georgia -9 over Clemson
Florida State -26 over Virginia
Oklahoma -36 over Tulsa
Auburn +7 over Southern Cal
Ricky Sixx: (3-0 overall)
Oklahoma -36 over Tulsa
Illinois -7.5 over Missouri
East Carolina -14.5 over Duke
Nebraska -35 over Troy State
ARCHIVES:
Preseason Classics Picks
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EDGE
Breakdown
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MARYLAND PASS vs. NOTRE DAME PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Notre Dame
Who will start at QB for Maryland? Head Coach
Ralph Friedgen has kept the decision close to
the vest. Friedgen said it will be a game-time
decision. Look for Scott McBrien, the WVU transfer,
to get the nod while Chris Kelley also gets plenty
of reps in a rotation of sorts. In a nutshell,
you will see both on the field. The duel signal
callers are both sophomores with little to no
experience, especially playing in the Terp’s
difficult scheme. It will be natural for them
to struggle early, until their nerves settle.
The Terps have a stellar group of receivers, including
last year’s returning leaders Scooter Monroe
and Jafar Williams. However, the player to keep
an eye on is ex-QB Latrez Harrison- he was your
playmaker in the spring. The Irish pass defense
has suffered disappointment over the past decade,
but last year we saw a little resurgence out of
this group. Experience will be evident with three
of four DB starters back, including Duff, Sapp,
and Walton - amongst the best at their respected
positions. Too much inexperience exists at quarterback
in Terrapin Country for a first game against a
storied program in the headlights of prime time
TV.
NOTRE
DAME PASS vs. MARYLAND PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Even
Carlyle Holiday was handed the reigns as the starting
quarterback for the Irish in the third week of
last season and kept a firm grip on his job throughout
the 2001 campaign. Unfortunately, he really only
fits well within the Irish option scheme with
his great running ability. Winning big games with
his arm isn’t his strength, which could
prove quite interesting in new Head Coach Ty Willingham’s
‘West Coast’ dimension. After Holiday,
there is nobody to come in off the bench since
Matt LoVecchio transferred. The Irish receivers
are hurting badly for experience and top-level
talent. This combination will not bode well for
air-intensive purposes in 2002. On the other side,
the Maryland DBs have had their share of problems
as well, ranked 82nd in the country in pass defense
last year. The Terp’s only hope rests in
the new names and faces which dot the Terrapin
defensive backfield. This overall situation is
sour for both sides and will boil down to weakness
versus weakness. This battle could be decisive
to the final result.
MARYLAND
RUN vs. NOTRE DAME RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Maryland
The big news in College Park has been the ailments
of Bruce Perry all spring and into the fall. The
bottom line: he is out. The big surprise most
fans will discover Saturday is the loss may not
be as bad as it appears. A trio of Terp RBs have
the ability to provide similar success like the
2001 Terps got on the ground. The deep group of
alternating TBs starts with Jason Crawford and
Mario Merrills. But don’t forget the big
load at FB either as James Lynch does most of
the plowing for these young backs. The Irish have
to replace much of the defensive talent up front
from a year ago. The way the Maryland OL came
on last year makes one believe the Terps could
have an edge here. You can never really tell with
a team like Notre Dame, as you can be sure they
have the talent. It is just unproven talent with
all of the newcomers stepping in at DE and LB.
NOTRE
DAME RUN vs. MARYLAND RUN DEFENSE
Slight Edge: Notre Dame
Just like at Maryland, the star TB has been lost
as Julius Jones became academically ineligible
for this fall. Just like at Maryland, fans will
see that Notre Dame has another capable replacement
in young Ryan Grant, who had a MVP performance
in the spring game. For as bad as Maryland’s
pass defense was last season, the run defense
was just as good, finishing at the top of the
ACC and ninth in the nation. Obviously, MLB E.J.
Henderson plays a big role here. E.J. has been
hampered by back problems the entire off-season.
He will start and play - the huge question is
how much time will he be able to give? This category
is close; the Notre Dame offensive line is massive,
strong, and experienced and may give the Irish
a slight edge.
MARYLAND
OL vs. NOTRE DAME DL
Edge: Maryland
No contest here, on paper at least. What was a
weak link at Maryland just two seasons ago revived
itself into a major force last year and was responsible
for much of the Terp’s rushing success.
Notre Dame counters with inexperience, and unproven-but-talented
names. The inside tackles for the Irish are well
stocked, though. The outside people leave room
for concern.
NOTRE
DAME OL vs. MARYLAND DL
Edge: Notre Dame
Up front in this comparison, the Irish hold a
literal edge in strength and size. This Notre
Dame unit averages over 300 pounds per man and
is bolstered by four returning upperclassmen.
The gap may not be so big, simply due to the E.J.
Henderson factor, but E.J. is not a down linemen.
This is another safe call, regardless of the fact
that the Terrapin defensive front is not exactly
chopped liver.
SPECIAL
TEAMS
Edge: Even
The kicking edge goes to Notre Dame, as senior
Nicholas Setta is a leading Lou Groza Award Candidate.
Inversely, the punting edge goes to Maryland,
as Brooks Barnard is a leading Ray Guy Award Candidate.
How more even can you get? No more Julius Jones
as a return threat. This one could really hurt
the Irish in the long run of the season. Vontez
Duff made some small contributions last year as
a return specialist. The bottom line is that Notre
Dame lacks a game breaker at this juncture. South
of the Mason-Dixon Line, Maryland has a few question
marks of their own. Last year’s return man
Guilian Gary has moved on, opening the doors for
a promising young local talent named Steve Suter,
who is now questionable with a quad strain. The
backups leave room for concern. Neither one of
these schools should frighten opponents with touchdown
threats at the return position(s).
FINAL
THOUGHTS
It may be impossible to find two more evenly matched
teams this weekend. I thought after breaking down
each category, some light could be shed on who
might be victorious. Forget about it…the
more one examines the facts, the more the outcomes
seems uncertain. So much parity exists with these
two teams. The similarities are almost uncanny.
You have two star TBs out with solid untested
backups, two very good OLs, a top notch kicker
and punter on opposite sides, no fabulous return
men, Notre Dame is low on the receiving end while
Maryland is low on defensive back coverage, the
game is at a neutral site…and the list goes
on. Intangibles will play a big role in this tussle
and are just too difficult to predict. Cutting
down on turnovers, penalties, and missed assignments
will be the possible difference. Head Coach Ralph
Friedgen will be the first to tell you his Terps
are a young ball club, especially at the offensive
skill positions where intangibles can play a big
factor. If the game comes down to a field goal,
Nick Setta is who you want on your side in most
situations. This, too, could be the difference
at the closing moments. Of course that is if Notre
Dame has the ball last. Toss this one up in the
air, say three Hail Mary’s, close your eyes
and pick. Notre Dame wins by three just like Vegas
said.(?)
INSIDE99 PICK: NOTRE DAME
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CLEMSON PASS vs. GEORGIA PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Clemson
The Tigers have so many weapons at WR that no
one else in the nation can even compare in terms
of depth and quality. Junior QB Willie Simmons
has as much athletic talent as his predecessor
Woodrow Dantzler. Still, the question remains,
can this QB deliver the accuracy required to hit
open targets? If the Dawgs of Athens have a concern,
it is in the DB department. The edge here goes
to Clemson due to their uncanny amount of quality
receivers. The gap would be larger with a drop-back
passer dressed in Tiger orange.
GEORGIA PASS vs. CLEMSON PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Georgia
Pass and catch combinations will not be a problem
for Georgia, either. With Green and Shockley on
the field throwing darts to extremely talented
receivers, preseason prognosticators are sure
to take notice. Wait, they already did. Unfortunately,
Clemson isn’t very strong at covering the
pass or providing even a semblance of a defense
- period. The Tiger pass defense finished around
the middle of the pack in last season’s
pass-happy ACC, which actually isn’t so
horrible. The odds in this category are just too
overwhelming for Richt’s airmen.
CLEMSON RUN VERSUS GEORGIA RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Georgia
The Tigers are reeling in this category. The front
wall has been decimated, as have the tailbacks,
and the feet of Dantzler are gone. On paper this
looks disastrous. Clemson fans just have to hold
out and hope that games are not won on paper –
maybe (and that is a big maybe) the newcomers
can prove their worth. Georgia looks to be fairly
staunch in the middle. If Clemson is to take any
advantage away here, it will have to be with speed
on the outside and Simmons breaking open on busted
pass plays.
GEORGIA RUN vs. CLEMSON RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Georgia
Is Georgia TB Musa Smith ready to explode onto
the scene yet? He sure has a steady group up front
blocking and creating holes to run through. Not
pulling any punches, but the Clemson defense was
borderline anemic last year. They simply could
not stop anyone. Once again, you have to give
the edge here to Georgia due to the massive advantage
their line creates.
CLEMSON OL vs. GEORGIA DL
Edge: Georgia
Clemson has one returning starter back on the
OL. Simmons has a quick set of feet. Can anyone
‘free Willie’? Unless there are some,
even any capable players (that no one has ever
seen up front) for the Tigers, no way can you
give them any advantage in this comparison. No
need exists to even get into who plays up front
for Georgia.
GEORGIA OL vs. CLEMSON DL
Edge: Georgia
The Dawg’s OL ranks fifth nationally in
the NationalChamps.net unit rankings. Led by team
captain Jon Stinchcomb, this unit has all the
makings of an old school SEC smash mouth program,
ala Hershel Walker. Another huge disadvantage
here for the Tigers; half of the front defensive
wall disappeared from a year ago.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Slight Open Edge: Clemson
Clemson should have better than descent special
teams this season while returning its starting
punter (Wynn Kopp) and place kicker (Aaron Hunt)
from last year, the first time that has been the
case since Tommy Bowden has been the head coach.
Clemson should also be outstanding in the return
game. Two returning players, senior Brian Mance,
and sophomore Derrick Hamilton, have ranked in
the top 30 in the nation in the return game. Last
year Clemson ranked 10th in the nation in kickoff
returns. The bad news is that it looks like Hamilton
will be questionable in this one with an injured
ankle, which hurts not only on special teams,
but at receiving as well. Georgia is just as even
in the kicking and punting department with Bennett
and Kilgo. The slight edge here goes to the Clemson
return men. Since Hamilton is questionable, we
will leave the slot open until his fate is decided.
FINAL THOUGHTS
On
paper, the differences are extremely glaring in
favor of the Bulldogs. How this game could be
anything less than a two-touchdown point spread
differential is difficult to understand. Even
the home-field advantage gets shoved “between
the hedges”. But that is why they play the
game. The Tiger’s only hope(s) seems to
dwell in three key areas: 1. ) QB Willie Simmons
hype is proven true and he can get the ball to
his receivers 2. ) the OL is full of talent nobody
is familiar with 3. ) and the defense, led by
LB John Leake, does a complete 180. An easy call,
barring a total turnover-fest by the Georgia offense
- only then could this game be a reachable Tiger
win in the closing moments. I have stated before
that Clemson Head Coach Tommy Bowden will be squirming
a bit more after this season, as the Tiger faithful
begins to wonder just how long they have to wait
to see the promised land under his esteemed ‘Bowden’
name. Georgia is a highly ranked team this preseason
following a lack-luster bowl loss to Boston College
last season. In years past, this Bulldog team
would have been lucky to crack the Top 10. But
due to a heap of evenly-matched teams at this
poll spot, Georgia has made out like the big dawg
they are. How will they handle the pressure and
accolades, for there seems nowhere to go but down.
Their SEC games are sure to test this theory,
but Clemson doesn’t look like it has the
horses to pose a tough exam in Athens. Take Georgia
and give the nine points.
INSIDE99 PICK: GEORGIA -9
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