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Each
week NationalChamps.net will be picking several
games to breakdown while predicting against the
point spread. NationalChamps.net does not support
sports betting and is in no way affiliated with
online sports bet organizations including advertising
clients. This is strictly for enjoyment purposes
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EDGE
Breakdown
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FLORIDA PASS vs. MIAMI PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Florida
Outside of home field advantage, this will be
Florida's biggest edge over Miami. Playing in
only their second game, a Hurricane DL with four
new starters will have their work cut out for
them vs. a very potent Florida passing attack
led by Heisman hopeful Rex Grossman. Look for
The Canes to try and double-up on WR Taylor Jacobs
while they take their chances playing man-to-man
on Florida's less experienced receivers. For Miami
to have success against Rex Grossman, they will
have to limit the big play(s), which means sacrificing
their intermediate pass coverage. Florida’s
OL, on the other hand, has to give Rex Grossman
enough time to pick apart Miami's young defensive
backfield. Though confident Miami’s secondary
will only contain their receivers for so long,
the Gator’s OL still cannot afford to have
their QB running for his life at any time during
this re-established rivalry.
MIAMI PASS vs. FLORIDA PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Miami
We've seen it before and we're going to see it
again: Ken Dorsey will go on the road and try
to prove that no matter where or who its against,
no one is better in a big-game atmosphere. Returning
with Ken is a more experienced (and dangerous)
group of receivers. On the other side is a Florida
secondary that will try to hold its own vs. a
bigger and overall faster opponent. If (and this
is a big IF) the Gator secondary can get some
help from their front-four, CBs Robert Cromartie
and Keiwan Ratlif should be able to slow down
Miami's passing game. But all bets are off if
Off. Coordinator Art Kehoe's hogs continue to
keep Ken Dorsey's jersey clean.
FLORIDA RUN vs. MIAMI RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Miami
While everyone points to Florida's passing game
as their key to victory, nothing could be farther
from the truth. It has been well documented that
a productive Earnest Graham can be the difference
for the Gators, thus his ability to keep the defense
honest will be very important. If the Gators can
force Miami to keep an eighth man in the box,
the passing game will eventually eat up Miami's
defense. Therefore, Miami's LBs will have to limit
Florida's ability to move the ball on the ground
in the first half. If accomplished it would eventually
force the Gators to be what they fear the most,
one-dimensional.
MIAMI RUN vs. FLORIDA RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Miami
For
either team to leave The Swamp victorious, this
battle will have to be won - in the trenches.
With the emergence of RB Jason Geathers and the
revived play of RB Willis McGahee, the Hurricane
coaching staff can sleep easier. What isn't helping
new Head Coach Ron Zook sleep is the fact that
Miami’s Head Coach, Larry Coker, has already
gone on record saying this year's OL is indeed
a better run-blocking unit than last year’s.
An improvement in run-stopping will have to come
from a front-seven expected to blitz frequently.
Memories of Travis Stephens running loose in The
Swamp are all too vivid for the Gator Nation.
And if Zook wants to avoid any repeat performance,
the defensive front will have to make sure they
know John Thompson's new schemes like the backs
of their hands.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Edge: Miami
Ever
wondered why Ken Dorsey rarely passes for over
300 yards? Or why Miami doesn't seem to put up
the yardage totals that other teams do yet still
manages to be one of the top scoring teams in
the country? Well, it all starts with special
teams and the ability to win the battle of field
position. Both specialists,
kicker Todd Sievers and punter Freddie Capshaw,
return as the best duo in the country while Miami
continues to produce some of the nation’s
best punt-return specialists. On the other side,
Florida also finds more-than-adequate return men
year in and year out. They might not feel so comfortable
about their kicking game, though. Sophomore punter
Jason Hunter's consistency has been in question
while sophomore place-kicker Matt Leech tries
to replace the departed Jeff Chandler. Since both
offenses should have success, it’s needless
to say that whoever has the best field position
will consistently have the most success.
FINAL THOUGHTS
If
you take a step back and honestly look at what
both teams have to offer, it’s easy to see
that not only is Miami a better team on paper,
but they've got more intangibles going there way,
too. The returning champs come in with a 23-game
winning streak and a large ‘#1 ranking’
target on their backs. The Hurricanes now have
to get used to playing the role of the hunted.
If Miami wants to leave the Swamp with a win,
the Canes will have to find some new motivation.
Either by being the under dog or through flat-out
hatred of their cross-state rivals, Miami will
have to find enough emotion to carry them for
60 minutes. Florida, on the other hand, will not
lie down so easily given 85,000 screaming home
fans to help them. No matter how much you try
to break this game down, don’t forget how
often unforeseen and unexpected factors are missed
by previews such as these. That said, the better
team falls short in what should be a game that
will come down to the final moments.
Ricky Sixx Pick: Florida 30 Miami 27
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PITTSBURGH
PASS vs. TEXAS A&M PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Texas A&M
Texas A&M has one of the top defensive secondaries
in the nation, with Thorpe watch list candidate
Sammy Davis at CB, and third year starting corners
Terrance Kiel and Sean Weston. The pass defense
combined for six interceptions last week. Pittsburgh
is in search of a go to WR for this season, and
they may have found it last week in Lamar Slade.
He is the only senior in a young inexperienced group
of receivers. QB Rod Rutherford excels more when
moving his feet (rushing, rolling-out and scrambling)
than he does in his pure passing skills.
TEXAS
A&M PASS vs. PITTSBURGH PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Pittsburgh
A common element in these two teams is stellar
defense. Pitts’s secondary had five interceptions
themselves last week, with CB Shawntae Spencer
grabbing three picks and opposite-side corner
Torrie Cox snagging another. The safeties are
young, and the position lacks depth. Offensively,
Texas A&M featured four QBs last week, reminiscent
of last year’s offensive woes. Mark Farris
performed mediocre, and none of A&M’s
touchdowns came in the air. WR Bethel Johnson
looked great after missing all of last season,
as he led the group with 96 yards. Jamaar Taylor
and Greg Porter also looked good. The Aggies simply
need to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers
more often, and more accurately. And obviously,
four QBs do not a successful team make.
PITTSBURGH
RUN vs. TEXAS A&M RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Texas A&M
The Wrecking Crew LB corps is exceptional, headlined
by multiple Butkus Award watch list candidates
Jarrod Penright and Brian Gamble. Jared Morris
and Jesse Hunnicutt only add to the strength of
this unit, which is again off to a stingy start
in their rushing defense. Pitt will largely rely
on RB Brandon Miree and a stable of younger backs,
along with junior QB Rod Rutherford, to supply
the Panther’s rushing attack. A strong OL
will help jump-start these inexperienced runners.
TEXAS
A&M RUN vs. PITTSBURGH RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Pittsburgh
If you hadn’t already noticed or heard me
say, defense will be a major theme in this game.
MLB Gerald Hayes has had back-to-back 100+ tackle
seasons, and is a candidate on the Lombardi Trophy
watch list. Joining him are junior Lewis Moore
and senior Brian Beinecke on the weak side, together
providing strong run defense. Texas A&M’s
talented young RB Derek Farmer is looking to add
to last year’s freshman starting experience.
He is complimented well by TB Dwain Goynes and
FB Joe Weber.
PITTSBURGH
OL vs. TEXAS A&M DL
Slight Edge: Pittsburgh
Senior C Chad Reed and RG Bryan Anderson anchor
a skillful Panther line, and are Rimington and
Outland Award nominees, respectively. Joining
these two is highly touted sophomore LT Rob Petitti
(a monster at 330 lbs) to round out this already
huge group. To top Texas A&M’s DL is
a tough task, though, with menacing DE Ty Warren
(a Lombardi and Outland hopeful), DT Marcus Jasmin,
and DE Linnis Smith. However, the line lacks depth
after these three starters in A&M’s
3-4 defense.
TEXAS
A&M OL vs. PITTSBURGH DL
Edge: Texas A&M
Pittsburgh does not have much talent on their
DL. DE Brian Guzek is the most experienced of
the group, which does not show much promise for
the Panther pass rush. Similarly, the Texas A&M
OL is not the strong point of their team. They
do have a couple of young emerging anchors in
sophomores LT Jaime Hightower and C Geoff Hangartner.
SPECIAL
TEAMS
Edge: Pittsburgh
The Panthers have a good return game compared
to the Aggies, who’s returners aren’t
so inspiring. Both teams have freshman kickers,
with the Panthers having two (just in case). So
far, the difference being last week: Pitt’s
kickers made both their kicks while A&M’s
kicker converted only one of five, missing from
37, 39, 45, and 47. The Aggies have the better
punter in powerful Cody Scates.
FINAL
THOUGHTS
The point spread indicates how close this game
should be, especially since it is in Pittsburgh.
This looks to be a defensive struggle for the
ages. One way of exploiting Pitt may be simply
for the Aggie offensive front to penetrate into
Pittsburgh’s defense so Derek Farmer can
have a big day behind FB Joe Weber. The Aggies
need to break through on the pass as well, and
exposing the inexperienced Panther safeties will
be a must. Both teams may suffer offensively,
and if it comes down to big-play special teams
and/or the kicking game, look out Texas A&M,
this could be an upset.
JEFF DAVIS PICK: TEXAS A&M
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OREGON PASS vs. FRESNO STATE PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Oregon
QB Jason Fife looked great last week in his debut,
spreading the ball out evenly to Oregon receivers
Samie Parker, Jason Willis, and TE George Wrightster.
On top of that, talented senior WR Keenan Howry
should be a key contributor in future games. Fresno
State’s safeties are a solid group, led by
SS Bryce McGill and FS Cameron Worrell. The Bulldog
CBs are upperclassmen but inexperienced, and so
far seem to lack in skills. DE Nick Burley will
be in Fife’s face the entire game.
FRESNO STATE PASS vs. OREGON PASS DEFENSE
Slight Edge: Fresno State
One area where Oregon is vulnerable is in their
defensive secondary, specifically at CB where
they are young and untested. The safeties for
the Ducks are both top performers, with Keith
Lewis and Rasuli Webster establishing themselves
last week versus Mississippi State. Oregon is
relying on 2002 signees Aaron Gipson and Marques
Binns, along with junior Steven Moore, to tackle
the Ducks’ corner needs. Fresno State has
injuries surrounding their passing attack, but
will still largely be a passing team. WR Bernard
Berrian will likely sit out this game to nurse
his bad knee, and QB Jeff Grady is questionable
this week but could still play. That leaves last
week’s young starters to again have to step
up big-time, beginning with QB Paul Pinegar, who
luckily seems very comfortable with the offense.
The Bulldogs are still dangerous at WR with juniors
Marque Davis and Deandre Gilbert, along with touted
freshman Jermaine Jamison and Adam Jennings, who
had the most yards last week.
OREGON RUN vs. FRESNO STATE RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Oregon
Although stingy last week against the run, returning
LBs Sam Williams and Marc Dailey and the rest
of Fresno State’s run defense have never
faced such a quality back as in Oregon’s
Onterio Smith. The Duck RB will test Fresno’s
skills with a more powerful running game than
they are accustomed to seeing. Already off to
a dazzling start, Smith had 124 yds last week
behind an effective OL which features RG Joey
Forster, C Dan Weaver, and LG (moved from RT)
senior Corey Chambers.
FRESNO STATE RUN vs. OREGON RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Oregon
Oregon’s LB corps will make the difference
in this category, thanks to outstanding play by
WLB Kevin Mitchell and MLB David Moretti, with
Garret Graham on the strong side. The Bulldog’s
rushing attack was dealt a blow before the season
when senior Derrick Ward was claimed academically
ineligible this season, leaving Fresno State to
rely on junior Rodney Davis and freshman Matt
Rivera to keep a balanced attack. But they seemingly
still have some learning to do – though
Davis did gain 80 yards last week, it was against
soft San Diego State.
OREGON OL vs. FRESNO STATE DL
Edge: Even
Both lines have returning players who can dominate,
such as Fresno State DE Nick Burley or Oregon
RG Joey Forster. Similarly, both teams have holes
to fill and experience to gain.
FRESNO STATE OL vs. OREGON DL
Edge: Fresno State
The Bulldogs have five returning starters on this
massive OL. Each starter is over 300 pounds, highlighted
by senior C Rodney Michael and LG Fitu Tu’ua
as well as last year’s Freshman All-American
Logan Mankins. Victor Taifane and huge T Joe Schey
are on State’s right side. Watching Oregon’s
DL match up against Fresno State’s OL could
prove fascinating, as physical specimen Igor Olshansky
takes on the heavy right side of the Bulldog line.
Across the lines, this will be beef versus brawn,
and we’ll see which one counts for more
as a quick pass rush by Oregon senior ends Darrell
Wright and Quinn Dorsey should outmaneuver their
larger, anchored counterparts.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Edge: Fresno State
Kicker Asen Asparuhov and punter Jason Simpson
are a terrific tandem for the Bulldogs, amongst
the best in the nation. Oregon has great kick
and punt returners compared to Fresno State, especially
with the absence of Bulldog Bernard Berrian from
this game. Fresno State has had success in FG
and punt blocking, but oftentimes they find themselves
penalized for their aggressiveness.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Oregon has clear offensive strengths that Fresno
State will not be able to overcome. It will be
a close game only if the Bulldog OL gives their
QBs plenty of time to air it out against Oregon’s
suspect CBs. And if Bulldog special teams can
come up big again, as in last week, it could be
shocking. Otherwise, Fife, Smith, and company
will likely “run” away with it.
JEFF DAVIS PICK: OREGON
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