Each week NationalChamps.net will be picking several games to breakdown while predicting against the point spread. NationalChamps.net does not support sports betting and is in no way affiliated with online sports bet organizations including advertising clients. This is strictly for enjoyment purposes only.

WEEK 2

MEDIA SCOPE
Contrasts Of The Week
Upset City
My Grass Is Blue
What the Preseason Polls Missed
Tripping To East Rutherford

 

EDGE Breakdown
Miami at Florida
Texas A&M at Pittsburgh
Fresno State at Oregon

PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD
INSIDE99: (2-2-1 overall)

Mississippi -8 over Memphis
Michigan State -26.5 over Rice
Oregon -16 over Fresno State
Oklahoma -12 over Alabama
South Carolina -4 over Virginia

Ricky Sixx: (4-3 overall)
Ohio State -28 over Kent State
Georgia Tech -23 over Connecticut
South Carolina -4 over Virginia

ARCHIVES
Preseason Classics Picks
Week 1 Picks

 

EDGE Breakdown

FLORIDA PASS vs. MIAMI PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Florida

Outside of home field advantage, this will be Florida's biggest edge over Miami. Playing in only their second game, a Hurricane DL with four new starters will have their work cut out for them vs. a very potent Florida passing attack led by Heisman hopeful Rex Grossman. Look for The Canes to try and double-up on WR Taylor Jacobs while they take their chances playing man-to-man on Florida's less experienced receivers. For Miami to have success against Rex Grossman, they will have to limit the big play(s), which means sacrificing their intermediate pass coverage. Florida’s OL, on the other hand, has to give Rex Grossman enough time to pick apart Miami's young defensive backfield. Though confident Miami’s secondary will only contain their receivers for so long, the Gator’s OL still cannot afford to have their QB running for his life at any time during this re-established rivalry.

MIAMI PASS vs. FLORIDA PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Miami

We've seen it before and we're going to see it again: Ken Dorsey will go on the road and try to prove that no matter where or who its against, no one is better in a big-game atmosphere. Returning with Ken is a more experienced (and dangerous) group of receivers. On the other side is a Florida secondary that will try to hold its own vs. a bigger and overall faster opponent. If (and this is a big IF) the Gator secondary can get some help from their front-four, CBs Robert Cromartie and Keiwan Ratlif should be able to slow down Miami's passing game. But all bets are off if Off. Coordinator Art Kehoe's hogs continue to keep Ken Dorsey's jersey clean.

FLORIDA RUN vs. MIAMI RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Miami

While everyone points to Florida's passing game as their key to victory, nothing could be farther from the truth. It has been well documented that a productive Earnest Graham can be the difference for the Gators, thus his ability to keep the defense honest will be very important. If the Gators can force Miami to keep an eighth man in the box, the passing game will eventually eat up Miami's defense. Therefore, Miami's LBs will have to limit Florida's ability to move the ball on the ground in the first half. If accomplished it would eventually force the Gators to be what they fear the most, one-dimensional.

MIAMI RUN vs. FLORIDA RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Miami

For either team to leave The Swamp victorious, this battle will have to be won - in the trenches. With the emergence of RB Jason Geathers and the revived play of RB Willis McGahee, the Hurricane coaching staff can sleep easier. What isn't helping new Head Coach Ron Zook sleep is the fact that Miami’s Head Coach, Larry Coker, has already gone on record saying this year's OL is indeed a better run-blocking unit than last year’s. An improvement in run-stopping will have to come from a front-seven expected to blitz frequently. Memories of Travis Stephens running loose in The Swamp are all too vivid for the Gator Nation. And if Zook wants to avoid any repeat performance, the defensive front will have to make sure they know John Thompson's new schemes like the backs of their hands.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Edge: Miami

Ever wondered why Ken Dorsey rarely passes for over 300 yards? Or why Miami doesn't seem to put up the yardage totals that other teams do yet still manages to be one of the top scoring teams in the country? Well, it all starts with special teams and the ability to win the battle of field position. Both specialists,
kicker Todd Sievers and punter Freddie Capshaw, return as the best duo in the country while Miami continues to produce some of the nation’s best punt-return specialists. On the other side, Florida also finds more-than-adequate return men year in and year out. They might not feel so comfortable about their kicking game, though. Sophomore punter Jason Hunter's consistency has been in question while sophomore place-kicker Matt Leech tries to replace the departed Jeff Chandler. Since both offenses should have success, it’s needless to say that whoever has the best field position will consistently have the most success.

FINAL THOUGHTS
If you take a step back and honestly look at what both teams have to offer, it’s easy to see that not only is Miami a better team on paper, but they've got more intangibles going there way, too. The returning champs come in with a 23-game winning streak and a large ‘#1 ranking’ target on their backs. The Hurricanes now have to get used to playing the role of the hunted. If Miami wants to leave the Swamp with a win, the Canes will have to find some new motivation. Either by being the under dog or through flat-out hatred of their cross-state rivals, Miami will have to find enough emotion to carry them for 60 minutes. Florida, on the other hand, will not lie down so easily given 85,000 screaming home fans to help them. No matter how much you try to break this game down, don’t forget how often unforeseen and unexpected factors are missed by previews such as these. That said, the better team falls short in what should be a game that will come down to the final moments.

Ricky Sixx Pick: Florida 30 Miami 27

 

PITTSBURGH PASS vs. TEXAS A&M PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Texas A&M

Texas A&M has one of the top defensive secondaries in the nation, with Thorpe watch list candidate Sammy Davis at CB, and third year starting corners Terrance Kiel and Sean Weston. The pass defense combined for six interceptions last week. Pittsburgh is in search of a go to WR for this season, and they may have found it last week in Lamar Slade. He is the only senior in a young inexperienced group of receivers. QB Rod Rutherford excels more when moving his feet (rushing, rolling-out and scrambling) than he does in his pure passing skills.

TEXAS A&M PASS vs. PITTSBURGH PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Pittsburgh

A common element in these two teams is stellar defense. Pitts’s secondary had five interceptions themselves last week, with CB Shawntae Spencer grabbing three picks and opposite-side corner Torrie Cox snagging another. The safeties are young, and the position lacks depth. Offensively, Texas A&M featured four QBs last week, reminiscent of last year’s offensive woes. Mark Farris performed mediocre, and none of A&M’s touchdowns came in the air. WR Bethel Johnson looked great after missing all of last season, as he led the group with 96 yards. Jamaar Taylor and Greg Porter also looked good. The Aggies simply need to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers more often, and more accurately. And obviously, four QBs do not a successful team make.

PITTSBURGH RUN vs. TEXAS A&M RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Texas A&M

The Wrecking Crew LB corps is exceptional, headlined by multiple Butkus Award watch list candidates Jarrod Penright and Brian Gamble. Jared Morris and Jesse Hunnicutt only add to the strength of this unit, which is again off to a stingy start in their rushing defense. Pitt will largely rely on RB Brandon Miree and a stable of younger backs, along with junior QB Rod Rutherford, to supply the Panther’s rushing attack. A strong OL will help jump-start these inexperienced runners.

TEXAS A&M RUN vs. PITTSBURGH RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Pittsburgh

If you hadn’t already noticed or heard me say, defense will be a major theme in this game. MLB Gerald Hayes has had back-to-back 100+ tackle seasons, and is a candidate on the Lombardi Trophy watch list. Joining him are junior Lewis Moore and senior Brian Beinecke on the weak side, together providing strong run defense. Texas A&M’s talented young RB Derek Farmer is looking to add to last year’s freshman starting experience. He is complimented well by TB Dwain Goynes and FB Joe Weber.

PITTSBURGH OL vs. TEXAS A&M DL
Slight Edge: Pittsburgh

Senior C Chad Reed and RG Bryan Anderson anchor a skillful Panther line, and are Rimington and Outland Award nominees, respectively. Joining these two is highly touted sophomore LT Rob Petitti (a monster at 330 lbs) to round out this already huge group. To top Texas A&M’s DL is a tough task, though, with menacing DE Ty Warren (a Lombardi and Outland hopeful), DT Marcus Jasmin, and DE Linnis Smith. However, the line lacks depth after these three starters in A&M’s 3-4 defense.

TEXAS A&M OL vs. PITTSBURGH DL
Edge: Texas A&M

Pittsburgh does not have much talent on their DL. DE Brian Guzek is the most experienced of the group, which does not show much promise for the Panther pass rush. Similarly, the Texas A&M OL is not the strong point of their team. They do have a couple of young emerging anchors in sophomores LT Jaime Hightower and C Geoff Hangartner.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Edge: Pittsburgh

The Panthers have a good return game compared to the Aggies, who’s returners aren’t so inspiring. Both teams have freshman kickers, with the Panthers having two (just in case). So far, the difference being last week: Pitt’s kickers made both their kicks while A&M’s kicker converted only one of five, missing from 37, 39, 45, and 47. The Aggies have the better punter in powerful Cody Scates.

FINAL THOUGHTS
The point spread indicates how close this game should be, especially since it is in Pittsburgh. This looks to be a defensive struggle for the ages. One way of exploiting Pitt may be simply for the Aggie offensive front to penetrate into Pittsburgh’s defense so Derek Farmer can have a big day behind FB Joe Weber. The Aggies need to break through on the pass as well, and exposing the inexperienced Panther safeties will be a must. Both teams may suffer offensively, and if it comes down to big-play special teams and/or the kicking game, look out Texas A&M, this could be an upset.

JEFF DAVIS PICK: TEXAS A&M

 

OREGON PASS vs. FRESNO STATE PASS DEFENSE
Edge: Oregon

QB Jason Fife looked great last week in his debut, spreading the ball out evenly to Oregon receivers Samie Parker, Jason Willis, and TE George Wrightster. On top of that, talented senior WR Keenan Howry should be a key contributor in future games. Fresno State’s safeties are a solid group, led by SS Bryce McGill and FS Cameron Worrell. The Bulldog CBs are upperclassmen but inexperienced, and so far seem to lack in skills. DE Nick Burley will be in Fife’s face the entire game.

FRESNO STATE PASS vs. OREGON PASS DEFENSE
Slight Edge: Fresno State

One area where Oregon is vulnerable is in their defensive secondary, specifically at CB where they are young and untested. The safeties for the Ducks are both top performers, with Keith Lewis and Rasuli Webster establishing themselves last week versus Mississippi State. Oregon is relying on 2002 signees Aaron Gipson and Marques Binns, along with junior Steven Moore, to tackle the Ducks’ corner needs. Fresno State has injuries surrounding their passing attack, but will still largely be a passing team. WR Bernard Berrian will likely sit out this game to nurse his bad knee, and QB Jeff Grady is questionable this week but could still play. That leaves last week’s young starters to again have to step up big-time, beginning with QB Paul Pinegar, who luckily seems very comfortable with the offense. The Bulldogs are still dangerous at WR with juniors Marque Davis and Deandre Gilbert, along with touted freshman Jermaine Jamison and Adam Jennings, who had the most yards last week.

OREGON RUN vs. FRESNO STATE RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Oregon

Although stingy last week against the run, returning LBs Sam Williams and Marc Dailey and the rest of Fresno State’s run defense have never faced such a quality back as in Oregon’s Onterio Smith. The Duck RB will test Fresno’s skills with a more powerful running game than they are accustomed to seeing. Already off to a dazzling start, Smith had 124 yds last week behind an effective OL which features RG Joey Forster, C Dan Weaver, and LG (moved from RT) senior Corey Chambers.

FRESNO STATE RUN vs. OREGON RUN DEFENSE
Edge: Oregon

Oregon’s LB corps will make the difference in this category, thanks to outstanding play by WLB Kevin Mitchell and MLB David Moretti, with Garret Graham on the strong side. The Bulldog’s rushing attack was dealt a blow before the season when senior Derrick Ward was claimed academically ineligible this season, leaving Fresno State to rely on junior Rodney Davis and freshman Matt Rivera to keep a balanced attack. But they seemingly still have some learning to do – though Davis did gain 80 yards last week, it was against soft San Diego State.

OREGON OL vs. FRESNO STATE DL
Edge: Even

Both lines have returning players who can dominate, such as Fresno State DE Nick Burley or Oregon RG Joey Forster. Similarly, both teams have holes to fill and experience to gain.

FRESNO STATE OL vs. OREGON DL
Edge: Fresno State

The Bulldogs have five returning starters on this massive OL. Each starter is over 300 pounds, highlighted by senior C Rodney Michael and LG Fitu Tu’ua as well as last year’s Freshman All-American Logan Mankins. Victor Taifane and huge T Joe Schey are on State’s right side. Watching Oregon’s DL match up against Fresno State’s OL could prove fascinating, as physical specimen Igor Olshansky takes on the heavy right side of the Bulldog line. Across the lines, this will be beef versus brawn, and we’ll see which one counts for more as a quick pass rush by Oregon senior ends Darrell Wright and Quinn Dorsey should outmaneuver their larger, anchored counterparts.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Edge: Fresno State

Kicker Asen Asparuhov and punter Jason Simpson are a terrific tandem for the Bulldogs, amongst the best in the nation. Oregon has great kick and punt returners compared to Fresno State, especially with the absence of Bulldog Bernard Berrian from this game. Fresno State has had success in FG and punt blocking, but oftentimes they find themselves penalized for their aggressiveness.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Oregon has clear offensive strengths that Fresno State will not be able to overcome. It will be a close game only if the Bulldog OL gives their QBs plenty of time to air it out against Oregon’s suspect CBs. And if Bulldog special teams can come up big again, as in last week, it could be shocking. Otherwise, Fife, Smith, and company will likely “run” away with it.

JEFF DAVIS PICK: OREGON

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

PICKS AND ANALYSIS
Preseason
(Aug. 24)
Week 1
(Aug. 31)
Week 2
(Sept. 7)
Week 3 (Sept. 14)
Week 4 (Sept. 21)
Week 5 (Sept. 28)
Week 6 (Oct. 5)
Week 7 (Oct. 12)
Week 8 (Oct. 19)
Week 9 (Oct. 26)
Week 10 (Nov. 2)
Week 11 (Nov. 9)
Week 12 (Nov. 16)
Week 13 (Nov. 23)
Week 14 (Nov. 30)
Week 15 (Dec. 7)

Editor: David Hershorin